Wagner Group RECAP: Britain 'must prepare for regime change in Russia' - latest on 'coup' chaos

Internal government assessments warned that Britain must be prepared for the fall of Putin, The Times reports today.

Diplomats were said to be preparing for more unrest in Russia following the failed coup attempt by the Wagner forces over the weekend.

Investors were watching for ripple effects from the aborted mutiny in Russia, with some expecting a move into safe havens such as U.S. government bonds and the dollar.

Early trade in Asia saw oil firmer on the instability in Russia, but currencies and stock and bond futures steady.

'(The mutiny) started and stopped when markets were closed, so there's been no instant reaction,' said Commonwealth Bank of Australia strategist Joe Capurso in Sydney.
"But it's probably not resolved,' he said. 'If there's new developments or deterioration...it'd be good for the dollar and the yen.'

S&P 500 futures rose 0.2%, suggesting markets were mostly taking the developments in their stride for now.

Financial markets have often been volatile since Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, which caused ruptures in markets and through global finance as banks and investors rushed to unwind exposure.
After Saturday's events, some investors said they were focused on the potential impact to safe-haven assets such as U.S. Treasuries and on commodities prices, given Russia is a major energy and grains supplier.

'If there remains uncertainty about leadership in Russia, investors may flock to safe havens," said Gennadiy Goldberg, head of U.S. rates strategy at TD Securities in New York.

To understand how Putin will react to the indignity forced on him by the Wagner Group mutiny, it's worth bearing in mind two highly revealing encounters he had with a radio host called Alexei Venediktov, one of Russia's most independent-minded and perceptive media commentators.

At the first meeting, held just after the 2008 Russia-Georgia war, Venediktov sat down with Putin for two hours, drinking white wine and discussing the conflict. 'Then [Putin] says: 'Listen, you were a history teacher. What will they write about me in the school textbooks?' ' Venediktov recalls.

Vladimir Putin is 'mortally wounded' and his fight to cling to power has only just begun, it was claimed tonight.

Western officials warned that his grip on Russia is crumbling as questions mounted over his whereabouts following the attempted coup.

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken suggested that the whirlwind 24-hour mutiny led by the head of a Russian renegade army, Yevgeny Prigozhin , showed 'real cracks' in Putin's hold on power.

As well as holding talks with the US President, Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelensky said he had held phone calls with Canada and Poland following the Wagner group's attempted coup in Russia.

The President said he had told Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau in a phone call in which he shared 'Ukraine's assessments of the attempted coup in Russia and the impact of this situation on the course of hostilities'.

US President Joe Biden and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky spoke by phone on Sunday, a day after a mercenary group's aborted rebellion in Russia weakened President Vladimir Putin.

Zelensky, writing on his Website and Telegram, said they discussed 'the course of hostilities and the processes taking place in Russia' and urged that more pressure be put on Russia to restore Ukraine's borders.

'Yesterday's events exposed the weakness of Putin's regime,' Zelensky said he told Biden.
The White House said the two leaders discussed Ukraine's counteroffensive, and that Biden reaffirmed unwavering U.S. support, including through continued security, economic and humanitarian aid.

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said earlier Sunday the attempted insurrection and now-exiled Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin's criticism of Russia's invasion of Ukraine 'create more cracks in the Russian facade.'

The revolt by Russia's Wagner mercenary group against President Vladimir Putin over the war in Ukraine has revealed 'divisions' within the Russian leadership, French President Emmanuel Macron said Sunday.

The abandoned march on Moscow 'shows the divisions that exist within the Russian camp, and the fragility of both its military and its auxillary forces', Macron told the Provence newspaper, saying 'the situation is still developing' and he was 'following the events hour by hour'.

Russia said on Sunday that China threw its support behind President Vladimir Putin's efforts to stabilise the country after an aborted rebellion against the Kremlin by an army of mercenaries.

The Russian Foreign Ministry said China declared support for the leadership in Moscow during a previously unannounced trip to Beijing by Russian deputy foreign minister Andrei Rudenko.

'The Chinese side expressed support for the efforts of the leadership of the Russian Federation to stabilise the situation in the country in connection with the events of June 24, and reaffirmed its interest in strengthening the unity and further prosperity of Russia,' the statement from Moscow said.

Mr Rudenko met with Chinese foreign minister Qin Gang to discuss "international and regional issues of common concern", the Chinese Foreign Ministry said on its website.

Russia redeployed two airborne units from the occupied territories of Ukraine to protect Moscow during the Wagner Group's failed mutiny, according to the Ukrainian military's National Resistance Center.

An attempted armed mutiny in Russia reveals 'real cracks' in Putin's authority, America's top diplomat Antony Blinken said. 

According to the BBC, Mr Blinken told US media that yesterday's rebellion by Prigozhin's Wagner fighters was a 'direct challenge' to Mr Putin and forced him into an amnesty agreement. 

Putin even accused the rebel group of treason, before all charges were then dropped. 

People have been spotted resting in a street side cafe and enjoying the sun in Moscow - one day after the Wagner coup ordeal. 

Troops deployed in the capital city the previous day to protect the capital from Wagner mercenaries have withdrawn. 

Others walked past as they soaked up the nice weather. 

Ukraine has released a video of an attack on Russian trenches in Bakhmut, eastern Ukraine. 

Watch the video here: 

Putin claimed the war in Ukraine was still his 'priority' amid the Wagner coup conflict. 

Watch the video here: 

The UK is at risk of 'woefully underestimating' Russia and its armed forces, the former chief of the defence staff warned.

Lord Richards told Times Radio: 'It seems to me that we have been at risk of woefully underestimating Russia and her armed forces, you know, despite the obvious chaos at the top levels of Russian defence, and the arguments between Wagner and the General Staff, and so on.

'The fact is, it doesn't appear as if Ukraine has been able to exploit it to achieve what it wants to do and needs to do, which is ... a big penetration of the Russian lines.' 

'And I suspect that whilst it might yet still happen, that we are in, despite the weakened state, arguably of (Vladimir) Putin, we're in for a long haul here.' 

Vladimir Putin has broken his silence about 'stepping up efforts' in Ukraine in pre-recorded interview that aired after he suffered his worst daily air force losses of the war.

The Russian president, on state television today, said he was 'confident' in his forces where he alleged are 'in a position to implement all the plans and tasks ahead of us'.

Putin claimed his optimism applied to Moscow's 'defence', 'special military operation', and the 'economy as a whole and its individual areas'. He also added that a meeting of the country's Security Council will still take place next week as planned.  

His speech aired today after it was claimed that Wagner mercenary fighters killed 39 pilots and crew by downing strike helicopters and a military plane during Prigozhin's rebellion. 

Putin is also believed to be facing the humbling expectation to replace his top two war commanders - close ally defence minister Sergei Shoigu and chief of the army staff general Valery Gerasmivov - or face new insurrection.

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An ex-CIA analyst has claimed Vladimir Putin 'orchestrated' the coup with Wagner mercenary chief Yevgeny Prigozhi in a 'classic false flag' to try to make the West believe his army had weakened.

Rebekah Koffler told Fox News' Eric Shawn on Saturday the coup was staged as a way for the Russian leader to boost his political power and he will eventually 'gain momentum, mobilize additional personnel, and re-energize his offensive on Ukraine.'

Prigozhin's forces moved from their camps in Ukraine into Russia on Friday and took over a regional military command in the southern city of Rostov-on-Don, before advancing toward Moscow.

Just as suddenly, the advance was called off on Saturday, and Russian state media said the Wagner troops would return to Ukraine while Prigozhin would flee to neighboring Belarus.

'So again, what has changed from this in the last few hours? All of a sudden he decided to turn his troops around and made this deal? No, this is all staged,' Koffler said, adding that Putin wants us to believe he is weak. 

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The aftermath of the Wagner rebellion in Russia is an 'internal matter' which will not affect the UK's ongoing support for Ukraine, a Cabinet minister has said.

Chief Secretary to the Treasury John Glen made the comments as the fallout from the mercenary group's march on Moscow continues.

The group's forces, led by Yevgeny Prigozhin, were just 120 miles from Moscow before the rebellion was called off to avoid shedding Russian blood.

He has gone into exile in Belarus after a deal with Vladimir Putin's government was brokered at the last minute.

The agreement will see charges against him of mounting an armed rebellion dropped.

The UK should prepare for a 'dangerous and unpredictable' post-Vladimir Putin Russia, a security expert has warned after the Russian president's authority was weakened.

Edward Lucas, a senior adviser at the Centre for European Policy Analysis, told BBC Radio 4's The World This Weekend: 'We've made very little preparation in this country and done very little thinking about post-Putin Russia.

'There will be all sorts of dilemmas and difficulties we face and we need to start thinking right now about how we deal with them.' 

Vladimir Putin has suffered his worst daily air force losses of the war after Wagner fighters killed 39 pilots and crew by downing strike helicopters and a military plane during Prigozhin's rebellion, it has been claimed. 

The Wagner group claimed to have shot down multiple Russian helicopters during its assault. Shocking footage shows huge black plumes of smoke rising into the air on a field after what is claimed to be a helicopter was targeted and burst into flames. 

Russian forces appeared to confirm three of their attack helicopters had been shot down by Wagner. 

The Russians are reportedly seeking to cover-up the losses of up to 39 pilots and crew in a few hours. 

They allegedly included some of Russia's leading air force crew members with one account saying 20-plus combat pilots were killed.

Putin is believed to have lost six helicopters - including three Mi-8 MTPRs specialising in electronic warfare - as well as a sophisticated Il-22 plane used to conduct battle plans at high altitude.

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China has reportedly expressed its support for Vladimir Putin's army as Russia grappled with mutiny.

Russia's deputy foreign minister Andrei Rudenko held a meeting with China's foreign minister Qin Gang after travelling to Beijing for talks on 'international issues'.

As Wagner troops marched towards the Russian capital, Moscow was put on an 'anti-terrorist' alert.

Tight security still remains in Moscow and the capital's famous Red Square is still closed today.

Russia had advised locals to stay off the streets amid the attempted coup from Wagner, led by the exiled Yevgeny Prigozhin.

Russia's defence ministry said today said it had repelled attempted attacks by Ukrainian forces in the Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia regions of Ukraine, Russian news agencies reported.

The ministry said it had repelled 10 attacks in the Bakhmut area, agencies reported. 

As Wagner fighters retreat, local officials say that the mercenaries have left the Lipetsk region in central Russia. It is more than 186 miles south of Moscow.

Prigozhin halted his march on Moscow when his group were around 120 miles away from the Russian capital.

The Wagner chief himself has not yet been seen since being exiled to Belarus last night.

A former British ambassador to Russia has questioned why Russia's response to Wagner's rebellion was so 'weak' but he does not believe Vladimir Putin will leave power 'anytime soon'.

Laurie Bristow, who served as a British diplomat in Russia from 2016 to 2020, also said that he was struggling to make sense of Yevgeny Prigozhin's march on Moscow, which fell apart at the 11th hour. 

Prigozhin's private mercenary group had vowed to 'destroy anyone who stands in our way' on their way to Russia's capital from Rostov-on-Don - a key Russian city in the war which they were able to easily occupy.

Speaking on BBC Radio 4 this morning, Mr Bristow, said: 'I think we are in a very complex situation here.

'There are almost certainly several more acts of this drama to play out. One of the things we are all struggling with is to make sense of what happened in the last 24 hours. There are so many things we don't know.

'We don't know what Prigozhin was trying to achieve. We do not understand fully why the Russian response was so weak, allowing him to take Rostov - the key city to the war in Ukraine. We don't know why it was resolved so quickly.

'A day ago, Putin was accusing Prigozhin of treason, by the end the day all charges were dropped. We don't know the nature of how the deal was done, how it came to be done we don't really know what happens next.'

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Vladimir Putin has been left significantly weakened by the remarkable mutiny of the Wagner mercenary group, experts have said - despite the militia leader announcing on Saturday he had agreed to halt his march on Moscow, and would himself go into exile in Belarus.

Yevgeny Prigozhin's uprising marked the biggest challenge to Putin in his more than two decades in power.

It fizzled out on Saturday - but not before Prigozhin's men took the southern city of Rostov-on-Don and came within 120 miles of Moscow.

Prigozhin's decision to abandon his challenge to Putin's power remains mysterious, and much speculation was swirling on Saturday night as to why he had backed down, and what the intense and surreal uprising was all about.

Yet while Putin appeared to have won this skirmish, Russia analysts said that the 70-year-old - who has served continuously as president or prime minister since 1999 - was wounded in the battle.

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While all eyes have been on Yevgeny Prigozhin's Wagner group and their brief revolt against the Russian army, the war continues to rage in the background.

A fatal missile strike hit a high-rise Kyiv apartment block yesterday, killing five people.

A further 11 were wounded after Ukraine's air defences shot down a missile and the fragments hit the tower block.

The rocket was one of 20 cruise missiles launched at Kyiv.

The Kremlin faces a 'deeply unstable' situation after the Wagner rebellion 'exposed the regime's weakness', analysts have warned.

Wagner boss Yevgeny Prigozhin's forces moved from their camps in Ukraine into Russia on Friday and took over a regional military command in the southern city of Rostov-on-Don, before advancing toward Moscow.

Just as suddenly, the advance was called off on Saturday, and Russian state media said the Wagner troops would return to Ukraine while Prigozhin would flee to neighboring Belarus.

Analysts at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) allege the 'short-term fix' of an apparent truce with the Wagner Group will likely 'substantially damage' Putin's government and war efforts, claiming it demonstrated security weaknesses and the 'inability' to repel internal threats quickly.

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Russian state media is reporting that the Chechen special forces are withdrawing from Rostov - hours after Prigozhin and his Wagner group started to leave.

Chechen's leader Ramzan Kadyrov, had deployed his 'Akhmat' units to 'crush' Prigozhin's private mercenary group yesterday.

Kadyrov slammed Prigozhin's 'arrogance', claiming his actions could lead to 'dangerous consequences'.

The Chechen soldiers are now returning to where they had been fighting before.

As Prigozhin flees Russia to Belarus, Hanna Liubakova, a Belarusian journalist and researcher, said the last-minute deal shows that 'Lukashenko plays the role of Putin's puppet'.

She said that the Belarus president and long-time Putin ally doesn't have 'enough tools to stop Prigozhin from doing the same thing again'.

'Let's remember that in just one day... Prigozhin was able to almost reach Moscow.

'So I don't really think that a man with such ambitions and inability to risk in this situation would really listen to Lukashenko,' she said.

Liubakova added that the rebellion will 'definitely affect the moods inside Belarus' as it exposed Putin's weaknesses.

Last night, Yevgeny Prigozhin was pictured fleeing Russia as he was exiled to Belarus as part of a deal to end his mutiny, halting the threat of a civil war.

Pictures from Rostov show the Wagner chief smiling with crowds as he pulled out of a march to Moscow.

Yevgeny Prigozhin's troops who joined him in the uprising will not face prosecution and those who did not will be offered contracts by the Defence Ministry, Kremlin spokesman Dmitri Peskov said.

After the deal was reached, Prigozhin, who had charges against him dropped, said he was ordering his troops to halt their march on Moscow and retreat to field camps in Ukraine, where they have been fighting alongside Russian troops.

The deal appeared to defuse a dramatically escalating crisis that represented the most significant challenge to President Vladimir Putin in his more than two decades in power.

Some Wagner mercenaries will join the official Russian military.

Vladimir Putin has survived threats of a coup from private mercenary group Wagner after Prigozhin put an end to his mutiny against the Russian army at the 11th hour.

The Wagner chief called off his troops' march to Moscow late last night after successful negotiations with Belarus president - and Putin ally - Alexander Lukashenko.

Prigozhin also agreed to flee to Belarus, effectively exiling him from Russia. In return, he will face no charges from the Kremlin for his threats to overthrow Putin.

By this morning, Wagner had pulled out of Rostov-on-Don, the southern military command they had captured on Saturday.

Although Yevgeny Prigozhin's mutiny appeared to catch Putin and Moscow off guard, CNN reports that US spy agencies had briefed President Joe Biden that they had picked up signs the Wagner chief was planning something.

It's understood that US intelligence could see 'Putin's Chef' massing weapons, ammunition and other equipment near the Russian border.

The New York Times added that Biden spoke with world leaders from France, Germany and Britain amid concerns that Putin's nuclear control could descend into chaos.

US spies had been tracking the breakdown in the relationship between Prigozhin and Russia's defence for months, concluding it was a sign that the war was going badly for both Wagner and Putin's army.