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James Carville is a veteran political consultant who served as lead campaign strategist for President Bill Clinton's successful 1992 presidential campaign
How ironic that Democrats in 2024 are again set to hold the Democratic National Convention in Chicago.
For I fear a repeat of 1968.
Nearly six decades ago, delegates were gathered inside the International Amphitheatre in the Windy City to nominate Hubert Humphrey for president, but outside it was chaos.
Ten thousand anti-Vietnam war demonstrators were met by more than two thousand police and National Guardsman.
I remember watching it all as a 23-year-old, fresh out of the Marine Corps. The war was as real as it could get for me.
Tear gas was fired into the crowds. Officers indiscriminately beat protesters. Hundreds were sent to the hospital and even more were injured.
Television cameras captured it all – communicating to Americans at home that the disorder that they feared was worse than it seemed.
I'm not predicting that Chicago's streets will again erupt into violence, but if tensions in the Democratic party continue to build over the ongoing Israel-Gaza war – the discontented are going to seek an outlet value. And their numbers may be overwhelming.
In the Michigan Democratic primary, 100,000 voters cast a ballot for 'uncommitted' instead of President Joe Biden. And along with Arab American communities in Dearborn and Hamtramck and college students in Ann Arbor, Michigan, black voters are upset over the carnage in Gaza.
Last weekend, First Lady Jill Biden was heckled at a campaign stop in Arizona. 'It's a genocide, Jill!' yelled one demonstrator. 'You and your husband support the genocide of the Palestinian people!' another shouted.
Nearly six decades ago, delegates were gathered inside the International Amphitheatre in the Windy City to nominate Hubert Humphrey for president, but outside it was chaos. (Above) Police and demonstrators clash near the Conrad Hilton Hotel on Chicago's Michigan Avenue on August 28, 1968 during the Democratic National Convention
Tear gas was fired into the crowds. Officers indiscriminately beat protesters. Hundreds were sent to the hospital and even more were injured. (Above) Demonstrator with his hands on his head is led by Chicago Police down Michigan Avenue on the night of August 28, 1968
I remember watching it all as a 23-year-old, fresh out of the Marine Corps. The war was as real as it could get for me. (Above) Author James Carville with Bill Clinton in 1992
Certainly, America's far-left, for which I hold a very low opinion, is mobilized by the war. And they'll undoubtedly seek to exploit the unrest it creates - foolishly believing the turmoil advances their cause. But deep unease over this conflict extends far beyond the rank-and-file.
It would be a grave mistake for Democrats to ignore that.
It's increasingly clear that if Biden wins a second term, it won't be with a duplication of his 2020 coalition. A winning alliance for Democrats in 2024 will be older and whiter.
Enthusiasm among Democratic voters is in the toilet. Support among black Americans, particularly black males, and those under 30 years old is nowhere near where it needs to be.
Four more months of war is only going to make for more challenging times in Chicago - and the White House knows it.
No wonder that before the Michigan primary, President Biden said he thought a ceasefire was imminent, even though he may have been the only person to believe so. Maybe, it was wishful thinking.
During the President's impromptu White House news conference last month following Special Counsel Robert Hur's report, the President walked away from the podium, only to turn on his heels to take one more question about… Gaza.
On Sunday, Vice President Kamala Harris demanded an immediate ceasefire in Gaza in her most direct rebuke of the Israeli government to date. 'People in Gaza are starving. The conditions are inhumane and our common humanity compels us to act,' she said while standing in front of the Edmund Pettus Bridge in Selma, Alabama, where state troops brutally beat civil rights marchers nearly 60 years ago.
And on Monday, Harris met at the White House with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's chief political rival.
Now, there's no question that the GOP faces even stiffer headwinds than Democrats in 2024. Republicans have hardly won anywhere since the Supreme Court overturned Dobbs v. Jackson Women's Health Organization and ruled that the Constitution does not guarantee a woman's right to an abortion.
But regardless, it would be incredible folly for Democrats to dismiss the size of their political problem.
My other big concern, which I've been very vocal about, is President Biden's age. The administration can potentially make the situation in the Middle East better by reining in the Israelis or sending more humanitarian aid into Gaza, but there's no reducing the number of candles on the President's birthday cake.
I've been around for a long time and all of this together tells me that there are going to be some very unpredictable moments in this election.
I don't know exactly what they're going to be. But I promise you, they're coming.
Perhaps, in Chicago.
And Democrats are running out of time to do something about it.