The real cost of climate change: Global warming could cost the world up to $24 TRILLION over the next 36 years, scientists warn

Global warming could cost the world up to $24 trillion (£19 trillion) over the next 36 years, a concerning new study warns. 

Researchers think that by 2060 economic disruptions will have 'cascaded' through multiple industries such as tourism, transport, food production and healthcare. 

Heatwaves making it too hot for crops to grow will cost the industry billions, while flooding from rising sea levels will require expensive new infrastructure to be built. 

What's more, health costs will come from people suffering from heat exposure, while work stoppages will impact businesses when it's too hot to work. 

Many climate studies have looked at how many might be killed by climate change, but this new study considers the knock-on effects in the global supply chain.

Effects of climate change include droughts, wildfires, sea levels rising, more intense heat waves and extreme weather events such as tropical storms. The researchers point out that the implications of such events will ripple from one industry to another because they are all interconnected. Pictured, a wildfire near Amarillo, Texas, on February 28 2024

Pictured, heatwave days in the 2040s (left) and 2060s (right) under the worst case climate scenario, where greenhouse gas emissions aren't kept under control. The number of heatwave days in each cell was calculated from the ten-year average

READ MORE: Rising sea levels could cost Europe up to £748 BILLION by 2100 

Study reveals the parts of Europe most impacted financially by rising waters 

The new study was led by Professor Dabo Guan at University College London's Bartlett School of Sustainable Construction, who called the economic impacts of climate change 'staggering'. 

'These losses get worse the more the planet warms, and when you factor in the effects on global supply chains it shows how everywhere is at economic risk,' he said. 

Climate effects of greenhouse gas emissions include droughts, wildfires, sea levels rising, more intense heatwaves and extreme weather events such as tropical storms.

The researchers point out that the implications of such events will ripple from one industry to another because they are all interconnected. 

If countries become too hot or suffer climate-related disasters like flooding, tourists will be less inclined to visit which will hurt the country's economy. 

The study points to the Dominican Republic as a place that will see a decline in its tourism as its climate grows too warm to attract holidaymakers. 

Industries in the country that are reliant on tourism include manufacturing, construction, insurance, financial services and electronic equipment. 

From tourism, transport, food production and healthcare, economic disruptions will have 'cascaded' through multiple industries by 2060, the experts say. These graphs show financial losses in key industrial sectors in Tanzania, India, Germany and Sweden in 2040, 2050 and 2060. Tanzania, a lower-middle income economy dependent on agriculture, will see greater overall losses than Germany and Sweden, both highly developed countries 

Heatwaves making it too hot for crops to grow will cost the industry billions. Climate change is also expected to make crops more vulnerable to disease by facilitating the emergence of new pathogenic strains

An aerial view shows flooding in Fuzhou after Typhoon Doksuri made landfall and brought heavy rainfall. As scientists already know, climate change results in more intense rainfall because warmer air can hold more moisture. And because rainfall is increasing on average across the world, the chances of flooding are getting higher

READ MORE: The world is on track for a 'hellish' 3°C of global warming 

Scientists think the world could pass several catastrophic points of no return 

Meanwhile climate change is expected to make it too hot for crops to grow and more vulnerable to disease by facilitating the emergence of new pathogenic strains. 

For the study, the team looked at expected economic losses across three projected global warming scenarios, called 'Shared Socioeconomic Pathways' (SSPs) based on low, medium and high projected global emissions levels

In the best case scenario, the world shifts toward a 'more sustainable path', greenhouse gas emissions are curbed and global temperatures rise by only 2.7°F (1.5°C) over preindustrial levels by 2060.

In a 'middle of the road' scenario, which most experts believe Earth is on now, climate trends do not really shift from historical patterns and global temperatures rise by around 5.4°F (3°C).

But in the dreaded worse case scenario, humans live in a world of 'rapid and unconstrained growth in economic output and energy use' and global temperatures rise by a hefty 12.6°F (7°C).

Projected economic losses will be nearly five times as much under the highest emissions path than the lowest, the team think. 

Depending on how much greenhouse gas is emitted, the team estimate net economic losses of between $3.75 trillion (£2.9 trillion) and $24.7 trillion (£19.2 trillion) by 2060. 

Health costs will come from people suffering from heat exposure, while work stoppages will impact businesses when it's too hot to work. Here, a man cools off at a temporary misting station in Vancouver, British Columbia, August 16, 2023

An aerial view of burnt area after a fatal wildfire in Stinnett, Texas on March 1, 2024. Many climate studies have looked at how many might be killed by climate change , but this new study considers the knock-on effects in the global supply chain

Researchers studied the global financial loss of climate change under three scenarios, depending on how intense global warming gets by 2060

Total losses in gross domestic product (GDP) will amount to 0.8 per cent under 2.7°F of warming, two per cent under 5.4°F of warming and 3.9 per cent under 12.6°F of warming.

Future extreme heat is likely to cost Europe and the US about 2.2 per cent and about 3.5 per cent of their GDP respectively under the high emission scenario. 

The UK would lose about 1.5 per cent of its GDP, with chemical products, tourism and electrical equipment industries suffering the greatest losses. 

The study also reports that 2060 will see 24 per cent more days of extreme heatwaves even under the lowest path and an additional 590,000 heatwave deaths annually. 

But under the highest path there would be more than twice as many heatwaves and an expected 1.12 million additional annual heatwave deaths. 

These impacts will not be evenly distributed around the world, but countries situated near to the equator will bear the brunt of climate change, particularly developing countries.

Research shows that changes in climate create warmer, drier conditions, boosting chances of wildfires. This photo taken on March 5, 2024 shows a wildfire in Primorye Territory of Russia

Residents asses the damage in the flooded streets of Fort Lauderdale after three days of heavy rainfall, April 13, 2023

Already, developing countries – especially those in Africa such as Uganda and Malawi – suffer disproportionate economic losses compared to their carbon emissions. 

The experts conclude that global supply chains should start putting an emphasis on efficiency and climate resilience rather than on efficiency. 

As global temperatures rise, governments will be forced to think about how the financial risks of climate can be mitigated. 

'A concerted global strategy to reduce emissions will not only directly protect many people in developing economies from direct economic losses of heat stress but will also maintain resilient and efficient global supply chains and contribute to the long-term, sound development of the global economy,' they team say. 

The new study has been published today in Nature.