USC QB Caleb Williams is HUGE favorite to be picked first by the Bears in the NFL Draft... but talk of the 'next Patrick Mahomes' is premature, league insiders tell Mail Sport as another Heisman winner draws rave reviews

Caleb Williams' name has been engraved atop 2024 NFL mock drafts since his Heisman-winning campaign in 2022. Not even his disappointing 8-5 record at Southern California in 2023 could disrupt his perceived status as the top talent in this year's class. Instead, Williams has gone from a -550 favorite to be the top pick on April 25 to something bordering on an absolute lock.

For their part, the Chicago Bears seem determined to draft a quarterback first overall. Not only did the team trade starter Justin Fields to the Pittsburgh Steelers earlier this month, but Bears general manager Ryan Poles decided to skip workouts for Louisiana State's Jayden Daniels and North Carolina's Drake Maye, all but ensuring that Chicago has already decided to take Williams.

'[Williams has] checked all of the boxes so far and I've been encouraged with the time that we've spent together,' Poles told ESPN's Pat McAfee earlier this week.

But even if the Washington Commanders are effectively on the clock with the No. 2 pick of the 2024 NFL Draft, there remains some quiet, lingering concerns about Williams. And to those who expect Williams to be the next Patrick Mahomes, Joe Burrow, or reigning Rookie of the Year CJ Stroud, several league insiders have offered words of caution to DailyMail.com.

'He's sloppy with the ball,' former Pittsburgh Steelers running back and scout Merril Hoge told DailyMail.com about Williams. 'He has no fundamentals, sound fundamentals.

Southern California quarterback Caleb Williams warms up at the school's NFL Pro Day

A Bears fan cheers during a game against the Atlanta Falcons at Soldier Field on December 31

Fan cheer during a preseason game between the Chicago Bears and the Buffalo Bills 

'Does he make some real incredible plays?' Hoge asked rhetorically. 'Yes, he does. But [the networks] don't show you all the plays because it's some real incredibly bad ones too: It's on the ground, it's fumble, it's a turnover.'

Much like Kansas City's Mahomes, the reigning Super Bowl MVP, Williams has been praised for creating outside of the pocket. It's his ability to improvise, many experts claim, that make him elite.

'The thing that intrigues you most about Caleb Williams' ability to step up in the pocket,' former Washington Redskins head coach Jay Gruden told The 33rd Team about Williams' creativity. 'That's what people compare him to Patrick Mahomes.' 

But to Hoge and a growing number of Williams critics, the former USC star holds onto the ball too long (83 sacks in three seasons) while relying far too much on broken plays rather than existing within a structured offense. 

And instead of actually stepping up in the pocket, as Gruden claimed, Williams is often seen retreating backwards against pass rushers - a significant faux pas for a quarterback. 

Former Pittsburgh Steelers running back and scout Merril Hoge also spent time with ESPN

Former New York Jets GM Mike Tannenbaum likes Williams, but questions his decision making

Caleb Williams #13 of the USC Trojans looks down field against the Rice Owls on September 3

'He won a Heisman trophy by doing that kind of thing,' Hoge said. 'So he's gonna have to overcome that. And I'm not saying he can't. I'm saying is it that's there's his battle.'

Hoge went viral last month when he told Chicago radio station 670 The Score that Williams ' is not special,' but the 59-year-old football lifer wasn't completely writing off the former Heisman winner. 

He's just not ignoring Williams' deficiencies, nor is he willing to declare him the next Mahomes - a quarterback the Bears passed over in 2017 only to make the doomed choice of taking quarterback Mitchell Trubisky second overall. 

'You're talking about Caleb Williams,' Hoge said. 'What's everybody thinking? ''Now we got our Patrick Mahomes to make up for the Mitch Trubisky screwup.'''

Hoge warns against making any comparisons between the raw Williams and Mahomes, a quarterback who served as a backup in Kansas City for one season before becoming an All-Pro talent. 

There are similarities between the two, he concedes. Not only does the former USC star have 'elite' accuracy, according to Hoge, but the retired running back also thinks Williams is a better scrambler than Mahomes. 

'Caleb Williams is more elusive than Patrick Mahomes,' Hoge said. 'Does that make him better than Patrick Mahomes? Absolutely not.'

USC Trojans quarterback Caleb Williams (13) hugs his mom Dayne Price after USC lost to UCLA

To Hoge, the problems center around Williams' ability to play in a 'dirty' pocket amid an oncoming pass rush.  

'Caleb Williams has never shown he can play from the pocket clean or dirty,' Hoge said. 'And what he is, what he notoriously does is, he doesn't execute the play. He holds onto to the ball. Sometimes he'll throw it, sometimes he won't. But that inconsistency is not good.'   

Former New York Jets general manager Mike Tannenbaum's latest ESPN mock draft  has Williams entrenched at No. 1, but even he admits the Washington DC native has much to improve. 

As Tannenbaum explained, quarterbacks are taught to step up in the pocket against pressure, which is something that Williams has not mastered. 

'He also does have a habit of escaping backwards,' Tannenbaum told DailyMail.com on a conference call with reporters this week. 'The quarterback is expected to climb the pocket. He runs backwards, which is a bad habit.'

The good thing, as Tannenbaum sees it, is that the 21-year-old can still learn to play within the pocket and within an offensive system. 

'The reason I had Caleb Williams number one is like he has things you can't coach,' Tannenbaum followed. 'And I do think things like sacks, fumbles and sort of like pocket, let's call it discipline, are things that can be coached.'

Hoge doesn't disagree about that. But while listing the Bengals' Burrow and Texans' Stroud as examples, Hoge is quick to point out that NFL quarterbacks are judged on their ability to play in the pocket.

'And this is where why CJ Stroud's really good, why Burrow's really good' Hoge said. 'Now the way they function through their reads, the way they saw things, the decisiveness, the accuracy, I mean all of the, of those two things at a high elite level and he's not there.'

Jayden Daniels #5 of the LSU Tigers celebrates after a victory against the Texas A&M Aggies 

There are other concerns about Williams floating around the NFL's orbit, albeit many that come off as petty. 

Controversial sports columnist Jason Whitlock called Williams 'undraftable' after seeing the former Heisman winner crying in his mother's arm following a loss at USC. 

Others have pointed to Williams' recent decision to paint his fingernails pink as some sort of knock against his ability to lead a team. 

Of course, Williams is likely to end up in Chicago, where the flamboyant Dennis Rodman was embraced by Bulls fans despite regularly appearing in drag away from the court. 

Some critics slammed Williams for  bowing out of the NFL Scouting Combine earlier this month, but Hoge is unconcerned. As he sees it, the combine is an 'athletic event' that fails to replicate anything players will see at the professional level.   

Hoge, himself, still managed to make the Pittsburgh Steelers in 1987 after performing poorly at the first draft combine due to illness: 'I probably had the worst combine in the history of combines.' 

Instead, Hoge relies on game and practice film to see where quarterbacks are placing their passes. And that's a good thing for Williams, who is known for his accuracy.

'You got to have accuracy in our league and not just complete the ball,' Hoge said, explaining that quarterbacks are being asked to give receivers a chance to run after the catch by hitting them in stride and in the right location. 

'I'll give you a kid who he completes the ball, but he is not accurate,' Hoge said, referring to Carolina's Maye. 'He's erratic in every aspect of the game. I would not draft him in the first round.

'His throwing motion is too slow,' Hoge continued. 'He lumbers. Does he make some plays running? Yeah, but he's not quick. He's not scary.'

North Carolina's Drake Maye is not worth a first-round pick, according to Merril Hoge 

Hoge and Tannenbaum were both impressed with McCarthy's ability to play within an offense

The quarterbacks who have impressed Hoge and Tannenbaum are Daniels and Michigan's JJ McCarthy. 

"If you ever wanted to kind of like have a foundation: good processor and very accurate,' Hoge said of McCarthy. 'And he played in a pro style system and functioned in a pro style way.'

Tannenbaum has witnessed McCarthy up close and has maintained that he is an NFL-caliber quarterback. 

'I've been to at least a half dozen of their practices over the last couple of years, a lot of their games,' Tannenbaum said. 'For me, I've been talking about him for months... When you look at a quarterback, he's 6-2, 219, he's started 28 games, won 27 of them, 49 career touchdowns, almost 1,000 yards rushing.'

But the bigger upside might belong to Daniels, who, Hoge admits, has a ways to go before he can catch up with Stroud's decision making.

'Jayden Daniels, that skillset that he has gives me the most hope,' Hoge said. 'Now, is he as polished to CJ Stroud? No.'

And Hoge isn't alone in favoring Daniels.

'I would take Jayden No.1 over Caleb,' ESPN analyst and former Detroit Lions quarterback Dan Orlovsky told McAfee on March 7. 'I think Caleb is really good. I just think Jayden does stuff within the pocket better, more consistently. And I think he's a better natural thrower.'

Specifically, Orlovsky likes Daniels' accuracy – particularly when he's throwing down field.

'I think his ball placement versus man coverage is the best in the draft,' Orlovsky said.

ESPN analyst and former Detroit Lions QB Dan Orlovsky likes Daniels better than Williams

USC Trojans quarterback Caleb Williams (13) throws a pass during a game against Rice 

With the 2023 college season, NFL scouting combine and their respective pro days all in the rearview, Williams, Maye, Daniels and McCarthy will now await their fate at next month's draft in Detroit. 

Historically speaking, quarterbacks taken in the first round have a much higher chance at succeeding in the NFL, but that hardly means all four are destined for greatness. 

The bottom line, according to Hoge, is a quarterback's ability to play in structure, exist in the pocket, and make strong, accurate throws to the right receiver. 

Combine drills, such as deep passing exercises without the presence of a defense, are worthless to evaluators such as Hoge. Rather, they're looking for players who can succeed when things go wrong on the field. 

'You got to win from the pocket and you got to win from a dirty pocket and you got to do it 70 percent of the time,' Hoge said. 

'There's a reason there's no offensive coordinator in the history of football said: ''Hey listen, we're gonna make a play,''' Hoge continued. '''Everybody just run around and we're gonna make a play. 

'You win in in structure; you have to play in structure. And if you can't function in structure, you're gonna have a problem.'