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Why an expert on security in Mexico has serious questions about what happened to Australian brothers murdered on surfing trip
An expert has raised major questions about a key theory that has emerged about the brutal deaths of two Australian surfers and their American friend.
The remains of Callum, 33, and Jake Robinson, 30, as well as their friend Carter Rhoad, 30, were found dumped in a 45metre-deep well on a property in Mexico's on Saturday, each with a single gunshot wound to the head.
The Robinson brothers, originally from Perth, were in northern Mexico on a surfing trip when they failed to check in to an Airbnb near the city of Ensenada in the Baja California region on April 27.
The official story from the State Attorney General of Baja California is that the trio were purely victims of petty crime.
Police allege the perpetrators saw the travellers' vehicle and wanted to steal the tyres, with the victims murdered when they resisted.
However, there are still many unresolved questions.
Australian brothers Jake, 30, (right) and Callum Robinson, 32, (second from left) are pictured with their parents Debra and Martin
Jack Carter Rhoad, 30, was murdered with the two Australian brothers
There have been suggestions that Mexico's infamous cartels and organised crime gangs were responsible for the murders.
Organised crime researcher Dr Philip Johnson, a lecturer in the College of Business, Government and Law at Flinders University in Melbourne, told Daily Mail Australia there wasn't much evidence to support the theory.
'I don't think there's anything here to say this came down the chain of command from a drug cartel or some other sort of criminal organisation,' he said.
'I think it's really important to say cartels aren't organisations with clear memberships, there's no card-carrying cartel situation.
'Larger and wealthier, more powerful organisations work with subcontracts to a lot of different local gangs.
'So these guys could be relatively petty criminals, not in any particular way associated with a larger cartel.
'That doesn't mean they haven't done business for them.'
Dr Johnson explained the cartels' involvement in violence was due to the impunity with which they were allowed to operate by the state, police and military.
According to local media, blood was discovered at three abandoned tents where the brothers and their American friend were believed to be staying before they vanished. A truck, said to belong to either Jake or Callum, was also found burnt out at a nearby farm (pictured)
Australian brothers Callum, 33 (left) and Jake, 30, were last seen with their American friend on April 27
'Some cartels are quite well armed and have very experienced 'soldiers', so to speak, but what really allows them to do what they do is the fact that they can do it and get away with it and do it again and get away with it,' he said.
Dr Johnson said the fact another body was found in the well with the Australian brothers and their American friend - which had been dumped previously - was evidence of this impunity.
The area where the murders occurred is currently under the control of the vicious Sinaloa cartel.
Members of the Sinaloa cartel have claimed they handed over the travelling trio's killers to the authorities.
A representative from the organisation denied any wrongdoing and said the cartel had turned over the culprits to police after becoming afraid of 'unwanted attention'.
'They were low-level robbers acting alone. But we handed them over,' the Sinaloa member told the Daily Beast.
'We learned that the cops were looking for the gringos and also began looking for those who were responsible. We called the authorities to let them know where to find them.'
In response to these claims, Dr Johnson said it was possible a branch of the Sinaloa cartel knew something about the triple murder, or took action after learning about the crime.
'Larger organisations will be more interested in trafficking large quantities of illicit drugs; they won't want petty crime interfering with their trafficking routes and local arrangements,' he said.
Dr Johnson explained the 'unwanted attention' mentioned by the cartel member could refer to a drug trafficking operation utilising Ensenada as a transit point.
He said the cartel would prefer minimal police and media scrutiny to conduct business smoothly.
'They aim for a quiet and "normal" environment to avoid attention from federal authorities and higher-level law enforcement, though they may have arrangements with local law enforcement,' he said.
The execution-style murders of the three victims - who died from a single gunshot wound to the head - also raised questions for Dr Johnson.
Brothers Jesús Gerardo (pictured left) and Cristian Alejandro were two of the three suspects arrested. All suspects surnames have been supressed by a Mexican court
Ari Gisel, 23, is one of three suspects arrested. She is reportedly the partner of fellow suspect Jesús Gerardo
He said that suggested they were cold-blooded, calculated killings, not just the result of an opportunistic theft.
'I think it takes a degree of skill and experience to kill people in this way,' he said.
'For a fairly minor crime, to go to the trouble of killing every victim in this way… making sure there are no survivors or witnesses...
'This idea of a theft, a sort of opportunistic theft in a place with no regular traffic, at a remote surf location, seems pretty weird.'
Dr Johnson suggested the isolated location of the murders appeared unlikely setting for petty criminals to encounter people with any valuables.
'There's something more here about the interaction between the perpetrators and the victims in this kind of remote, unlikely location,' he said.
Dr Johnson also found the burning of the vehicle surprising, questioning why it was simply not driven away or sold.
'Even if there had been a struggle and there were blood stains in the vehicle, it was a fairly calculated way to hide evidence,' he said.
Expert points out major flaw with tyre theory
Eltan Talmi is CEO of Tactical Troop, a private security company specialising in Mexico.
Speaking to Daily Mail Australia, he provided insight into the horrific actions of the cartels in Baja California.
'According to the organisation Causa en Común, Baja California concluded 2023 as the Mexican state with the highest count of atrocities, totaling 438 incidents,' he said.
'These atrocities encompass mutilations, dismemberments, desecration of corpses, massacres, discovery of clandestine graves, torture, and other severe crimes.'
He agrees the theory suggesting the brothers were killed simply for their tyres doesn't stack up.
'The tyres issue is, of course, a cover story,' he said.
'No one will kill three tourists in Mexico for tyres. You can steal the tyres during the night without drawing so much attention.'
He said for authorities to conclude this was merely an auto parts theft seems hasty.
Mr Talmi believes the execution-style murders suggests more sinister intent
The corpses were decomposing after the thieves dumped them into a remote, 45metre-deep well
'Although violent car thefts often lead to severe injuries or fatalities, there were no reports of violent auto parts thefts in the region last year,' he said.
Mr Talmi believes the manner of how the three surfers were murdered suggests more sinister intent.
'Why were there headshots? It's highly improbable to consistently hit in the head if they were supposedly defending themselves; more likely, there would be multiple body shots,' he sad.
He said the location where the bodies were disposed of suggests the perpetrators might have known about this well beforehand.
'This case may not be a matter of simple criminality but could instead be linked to an organised crime group,' he said.
Mr Talmi said a number of factors led to him concluding this: 'The presence of a burnt vehicle, the dragging of bodies, and efforts to conceal these bodies in a pre-existing clandestine grave.'
He agreed with Dr Johnson that it appeared the brutal murders was a tragic case of 'being in the wrong place at the wrong time.'