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NOAA says tonight's 'cannibal' solar storm could be worst in 165 YEARS and cause GPS and power outages - as they reveal exact time it'll hit
Earth could suffer the worst solar storm in 165 years as six streams of plasma that erupted from the sun this week are set to make crash into our atmosphere tonight.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) revealed today that the worst-case scenario would be what happened during the 1859 Carrington event, which set telegraph stations on fire, cutting communications worldwide.
In our modern-day society, a geomagnetic storm of that magnitude could cause widespread electrical disruptions, blackouts and damage to critical infrastructure.
The event could also trigger magnificent nighttime auroras, or the northern lights, which will be visible in the US starting around 11pm ET and lasting through Saturday.
Scientists will know how severe the storm will be at around around 8 pm ET when the explosions of plasma racing through space will be nearly one million miles from our planet - and NOAA plans to issue alerts immediately.
Sunspot AR3664, which released flares this week, had reached a size that now competes with the sunspot responsible for the Carrington even
At least six streams of plasma are barreling toward Earth, which officials said could unfold like the worst geomagnetic super-storm in history when they make impact Friday night
Scientists have also predicted that three of the six streams, known as coronal mass ejections (CMEs), could combine to create a powerful 'cannibal CME.'
Geomagnetic storms take place when high-energy particles released from solar flares ejected by the sun reach Earth.
The sun is continuously erupting and hurling particles into space, but given that its 93 million miles from Earth, it rarely reaches us.
'We anticipate we will get one shock after another. We are really buckling down here,' Clinton Wallace, director of NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC), said during the Friday media briefing.
While officials are predicting an event a step below than Carrington, which was a geomagnetic storm level 5 (G5), they are not discounting that we could reach a an event on the lower end of the same measurement that ranges from G1 to G5.
Dahl explained that 165 years ago, auroras reached as far as Central America and Hawaii. He said 'we can, of course, not discount that we could reach kind of a low end.'
When the sun emits a solar flare, it creates an electromagnetic pulse (EMP) similar to that of a nuclear bomb which in turn can disable or destroy all electronic equipment, including satellites.
NOAA issued a Severe (G4) Geomagnetic Storm Watch late Thursday night, noting a a large sunspot cluster had produced several moderate to strong solar flares since Wednesday at 5am ET
Auroras are created when energy and particles from the sun temporarily interrupt Earth’s magnetosphere, creating a geomagnetic storm.
Some solar particles travel along our planet’s magnetic field lines into the upper atmosphere, activating nitrogen and oxygen molecules and beaming photons of light in different colors.
Friday’s anticipated geomagnetic storm is the result of several explosions on the sun, called coronal mass ejections.
These are large clouds of solar plasma and magnetic field.
Starting earlier this week, the sun has sent at least five of these eruptions toward Earth - and one has hit already, according to NOAA.
Dr Tamitha Skov, a scientist at the agency, said her team had determined the event would cause a geomagnetic storm level 4 (G4).
Skov said the storm could reach a G5 and as the other streams make their way toward Earth, she predicted things may not calm down until May 13.
Dahl said during the media event that he and NOAA 'have not seen this in a long time, which is why they are giving special attention.
'We have discussed this with FEMA because they need to know, not that we are expecting a catastrophic collapse.'
Earth could witness the worst solar storm in 165 years as six streams of plasma released from the sun this week are set to make crash into our atmosphere tonight. NASA released a photo showing a solar flare released from the sun on May 9
NOAA issued a Severe (G4) Geomagnetic Storm Watch late Thursday night, noting a a large sunspot cluster had produced several moderate to strong solar flares since Wednesday.
Sunspots are cooler parts on the sun's surface caused by massive changes in our star's magnetic field.
Often bigger than planets, sunspots appear dark on the sun's surface because they are cooler than other parts - although they're still very hot, around 6,500°F.
'This is an unusual and potentially historic event,' said Wallace.
NOAA is currently preparing for the CMEs to reach NASA's Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE), which was designed to study spaceborne energetic particles and sits about about 870,000 miles.
'That's how we identify the arrival of these one million miles from Earth at that point. When we see the CMEs arrive at the satellite,' Dahl said.
'That's when we will know the intensity that may develop here at Earth by different things in the solar wind that we look for.
'So with the speed of these events, roughly, we're talking an average speed here of around 500 miles per second.
'That basically means there could be about 20 to 45 minute of lead time.'
He continued to explain that the reason this geomagnetic storm 'is a giant' is because of two colossal sunspot clusters: one in the northern hemisphere of the sun and another in the southern hemisphere.
Sunspot AR3664, which released flares this week, had reached a size that now competes with the sunspot responsible for the Carrington event.
AR3664 is more than 124,000 miles across - about 16 times the diameter of Earth.
That's one of the largest spot clusters we've seen in some time,' said Dahl.
NOAA explained that GPS could see the most disruptions.
Rob Steenburgh, Space Scientist for SWPC, said: 'In the most severe cases, you'll see an actual loss of lock, so the so the receiver will lose lock on the satellite, and then that information that navigation of this navigation and timing information will be unavailable until it is able to reestablish the lock.
'So outage, with any luck, should not be prolonged.
It's going to depend on the number of spacecraft that are available to connect to the receiver and where they are on the horizon.'
NOAA said that people should prepare as they would for a power outage - batteries, flash lights and generators.
However, the agency has been intact with infrastructure operators in preparation for the geomagnetic storm.
'[People] won't have to do anything. And if everything's working like it should, will be stable they'll be able to go about their their daily lives,' said Steenburgh.
'You may get to see a fairly impressive aurora display.'