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Europe 'needs to create its own military defence alliance and cannot expect US to remain in NATO if Donald Trump is elected'
Europe needs its own military defence alliance and cannot expect the US to remain in NATO if Donald Trump is elected, an analyst has said.
'I'm not saying for certain that Trump will pull us out of NATO, but it's just too high a risk for Europe not to be prepared, because right now they're relying on America,' Harley Lippman, a foreign affairs analyst, told MailOnline.
It comes after Trump said in an interview with Time magazine that if he was elected again in November, continued US support for Ukraine would be depending on NATO members matching the contributions.
'If you're not going to pay, then you're on your own,' Trump said.
Lippman, who has been re-appointed to a US commission under Trump, said: 'Europe has to go forward not counting on America staying in NATO. Europe has to have its own NATO.'
He added that even France has alluded to Europe's need for its own defence alliance and that Europe had to be prepared in case Trump followed through on his threat to leave NATO.
Ukrainian service members of the 37th Marine Brigade fire a 2S1 Gvozdika self-propelled howitzer toward Russian troops, amid Russia's attack on Ukraine, in a front line in Southern Ukraine, March 30, 2024
Donald Trump (pictured) has told NATO members they will be 'on their own' unless they increase defence spending if he wins a second term in office in November
Ukrainian servicemen fire an artillery in the direction of Siversk, Donetsk Oblast, Ukraine on April 01, 2024
International affairs expert Lippman recently met MP Tobias Ellwood as well as former senior NATO Commander Sir Richard Shirreff in the House of Commons to discuss the dangers of American isolationism.
During the meeting organised the Henry Jackson Society think tank, Lippman warned attendees that Europe couldn't count on continued US support for NATO if Trump is re-elected.
He said that the attendees at the meeting in parliament agreed that a likely scenario would be Trump making a deal with Russia.
Lippman told MailOnline: 'Russia would get more of Ukraine than Ukraine wants and then, in another three years, Putin would come after Moldova and Georgia. He also certainly has his sights set on the Baltic Republics and Poland.
'And the problem with that is that no dictator in history who has successfully conquered a neighbour and then just stopped.
'If Putin defeats Ukraine, he is going to be so emboldened that he is going to go after other countries in Europe, almost all of which are NATO.'
Lippman said this could have devastating consequences: 'An attack on one NATO country is an attack on all NATO countries, which would be WW3.
'To avoid WW3, you have to defeat Russia in Ukraine, and Europe cannot count on America to [have its back].'
Lippman, who has been repeatedly appointed to the US Commission for the Preservation of America's Heritage Abroad by the last four presidents, also echoed Trump's calls for European nations to invest more in their defence.
He said: 'People need to understand the need to defend Europe from Russia, China, Iran and North Korea. These four nations are united together to undermine the West and ultimately to defeat the West.
'They are all playing to win and the only way we're going to preserve peace is if we are determined to defend democracies.'
Ukrainian servicemen of the 59th Separate Motorised Infantry Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine fire a BM-21 Grad multiple launch rocket system
International affairs expert Lippman (centre left) recently met MP Tobias Ellwood (centre right) as well as former senior NATO Commander Sir Richard Shirreff (left) and Barak Seneer (right), a senior research fellow of the Henry Jackson Society think tank, in the House of Commons to discuss the dangers of American isolationism
Ukrainian soldiers at the artillery position in an unidentified area on the Adiivka frontline prepare to fire the D 30 gun as the war between Russia and Ukraine continues in Adiivka, Donetsk Oblast, Ukraine on March 13, 2024
Lippman added: 'We're supposed to spend 2 per cent of the budget for defence, but most NATO nations are not even spending that. The defence budget [for European countries] should be four to five per cent.
'That will deter Russia because they'll see 40 nations, putting the military budgets that high is a very, very effective deterrent because [...] they have limitations and are running out of people to fight for them in the war. '
His comments come after Trump his supporters at a campaign rally earlier this year that Russia could 'do whatever the hell they want' to any NATO country not meeting its financial obligations for defence.
The 77-year-old doubled down on these claims in the Time interview published at the end of April and said: 'I wouldn't give [a penny] unless Europe starts equalizing.'
'If Europe is not going to pay, why should we pay? They're much more greatly affected. We have an ocean in between us. They don't,' he added.
Under the Biden administration, the US has sent more than $100billion (£79.5 billion) in military aid to Ukraine - EU nations have given the same.
NATO members have agreed on a long-term support package for Ukraine last month, which will see alliance members commit $100billion over five years to ensure long-term support, even amid a Trump presidency.
The proposals, led by outgoing NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, will give the security bloc a more direct role in coordinating the supply of arms, ammunition and equipment to Ukraine as it fights Russia's invasion, diplomats say.
Until now, NATO has focused on non-lethal aid for Ukraine for fears that a more hands-on approach could trigger an escalation of tensions with Russia.
Its members have provided billions of dollars in arms, but at their own discretion on a bilateral basis.
Under the new plans, NATO will be granted control of the US-led ad-hoc coalition known as the Ukraine Defense Contact Group, which coordinates the sourcing and supply of lethal weapons and military kit to Kyiv.
The move is designed in part to guard against any cut in US support if Trump returns to the White House, with Stoltenberg saying it would 'shield the mechanism (of providing aid to Ukraine) against the winds of political change'.
Ukrainian servicemen of the 92nd Assault Brigade fire BM-21 'Grad' multiple rocket launcher toward Russian positions, in the Kharkiv region, on May 15, 2024
Ukrainian servicemen practice combat exercises as Russia-Ukraine war continues in Donetsk Oblast, Ukraine on March 28, 2024
A soldier stands as they fire a handmade small multiple rocket launch system toward Russian troops near a front line, amid Russia's attack on Ukraine, in Zaporizhzhia region, Ukraine April 27, 2024
A Ukrainian soldier is placed in trenches retaken from the Russian army on the Vuhledar front line as the war between Russia and Ukraine continues in Donetsk Oblast, Ukraine on December 01, 2023
Hungary's Prime Minister Viktor Orban (pictured), who met with Trump in March, said after their meeting that he believes Trump would 'not give a penny' to Ukraine if he is elected
'It goes some way to protecting in case of Trump. But it is impossible to create something Trump-proof,' one diplomat said.
Trump has previously railed against the US provision of funding to Ukraine and said he would 'end the war in a day' if he were in the White House.
Hungary's Prime Minister Viktor Orban, who met with Trump in March, said after their meeting that he believes Trump would 'not give a penny' to Ukraine if he is elected.
'If the Americans do not give money and weapons, and also the Europeans, then this war will be over,' Orban said.
'And if the Americans do not give money the Europeans are unable to finance this war on their own, and then the war will end,' the Hungarian leader said, echoing Lippman's warnings about what could happen if Europe loses US military support.