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Florida braces for hurricane misery as NOAA warns 2024 season could be 'extraordinary'
The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season is predicted to be 'extraordinary' as officials have revealed the most aggressive May outlook in history.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) held a live briefing Thursday to discuss the preseason outlook, forecasting 25 named storms that could result in up to 13 hurricanes - putting Florida in the path of these natural disasters.
NOAA officials said that there could also be up to seven tropical cyclones with wind speeds of 111 miles per hour that could reach Category 3 or higher - the highest ever outlook given by the agency.
An above average season is qualified as having 14 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes.
The predictions are based on the development of La Niña, a weather system that occurs when equatorial trade winds strengthen and causes ocean currents to change, and much warmer than usual in the main hurricane development region.
The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season is predicted to be 'extraordinary' as officials have estimated there could be up to 13 tropical cyclones
'The forecast ... is the highest NOAA has ever issued for the May outlook,' NOAA Administrator Rick Spinrad said during the news conference.
'This season is looking to be an extraordinary one in a number of ways.'
He continued to explain that this forecast is the busiest in the 25 years that NOAA has been issuing in May.
About 20 other groups - universities, other governments, private weather companies - also have made seasonal forecasts.
All but two expect a busier, nastier summer and fall for hurricanes.
The previous record was in 2010 when NOAA's outlook showed 14 to 23 named storms that led to 12 hurricanes.
And while La Niña also fueled the powerful season 14 years ago, this year's ocean temperatures in 2024 are nearly 10 degrees Fahrenheit warmer.
La Nina usually reduces high-altitude winds that can decapitate hurricanes, and generally during a La Nina there' is more instability or storminess in the atmosphere, which can seed hurricane development.
On top of that, ocean waters have been record warm for 13 months in a row.
The ocean temperatures in the development region are closer to what is typically seen in June, not May.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) held a live briefing Thursday to discuss the preseason outlook, forecasting 25 named storms that could result in up to 13 hurricanes - putting Florida in the path of these natural disasters
The 2005 hurricane season was record-breaking with 15 events, but NOAA's data has shown that the main development region is much warmer this year than it was 19 years ago
Colorado State University hurricane researcher Phil Klotzbach said: 'Hurricanes live off of warm ocean water.
'That tends to basically be fuel for the hurricane. But also when you have the warm Atlantic what that tends to do is also force more air up over the Atlantic, more rising motion, which helps support strong thunderstorms.
The 2005 hurricane season was record-breaking with 15 events, but NOAA's data has shown that the main development region is much warmer this year than it was 19 years ago.
Brian McNoldy, tropical meteorology researcher from the University of Miami said: 'We've never had a La Niña combined with ocean temperatures this warm in recorded history so that's a little ominous.'
McNoldy also shared that we could see storms earlier than normal due to the combination - hurricane season typically peaks from mid-August to mid-October.
Record hot water seems to be key, McNoldy said.
NOAA forecasted that up to 13 of the named storms could d become hurricanes and up to seven may have wind speeds of 111 miles per hour - an average season sees 14 named storms with seven leading to hurricanes and three major one
The ocean temperatures in the development region are closer to what is typically seen in June, not May
'Things really went of the rails last spring (2023) and they haven't gotten back to the rails since then,' he said.
There are also factors helping the 2024 season gain speed including lower levels of wind shear that would otherwise bring smaller storms to a halt.
NOAA also noted the stronger, wetter African Monsoon Season.
Ken Graham, director of the National Weather Service, said: 'We have this warm water, we have an active monsoon season. Check, check.
'Don't expect a whole lot of shear, check,' said Graham. 'It all has to come together for a forecast like this.'