How soaring house prices in these seven battleground states could swing the battle for the White House

House prices in swing states could keep Joe Biden in the White House in the upcoming presidential election, a first-of-its-kind study suggests. 

The academic study analyzed home prices and election results at the county level for each of the six presidential elections from 2000 to 2020, Realtor.com reported.

Counties where home prices had risen in the four years leading up to an election were more likely to 'vote-switch' to the incumbent party's presidential candidate, it found.

In counties where home price performance was worse, Americans were more likely to flip their vote to the challenging candidate - whether they be Democrat or Republican. 

House prices were most influential in 'swing counties' in the seven battleground states: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, the study found.

Home prices have soared across the US in the last four years. But gains have beaten the national average in four of these swing states - suggesting this trend could favor the incumbent president in November.

The reason behind the trend is simple, according to the study's authors.

For most Americans, their home is their largest single asset, which means they tend to vote in support of candidates and policies which they believe will boost its value.

'People feel more financially wealthy if they have a lot of housing equity, relative to lower housing equity,' co-author Alan Tidwell, University of Alabama associate professor of finance, told Realtor.com. 

'How financially wealthy they feel really impacts their sense of financial and economic well-being.'

National home values have risen by a huge 46.4 percent from March 2020 to March 2024, according to the Freddie Mac home price index. 

But in swing states Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina and Wisconsin, all four-year price gains were larger than 50 percent. 

In Arizona, home prices have risen by 59.7 percent, in Georgia, they have risen by 58.7 percent, in North Carolina they have gone up by 62.4 percent, and in Wisconsin they have gone up by 50.8 percent.  

In swing counties, voters care about home prices the most, and real estate is one of the main drivers of household wealth, said lead author Eren Cifci, an assistant professor of finance at Austin Peay State University in Tennessee.

'So there may be many other factors that affect how people vote, but this definitely appears to be one of the factors influencing voters when they make their decisions.'

In the map below, scroll mouse if you are on a computer or hover your finger on a smartphone to see more details for each state.  

To conduct the study, the authors looked at the voting results for every county in the US over the past six presidential elections. 

Of those counties, 77 percent never changed their party preference, it found.

But in 641 - or 23 percent - of counties, voters switched parties at least once during the survey period - with some changing as many as four times. 

Within the subset of swing counties, for every 1 percent increase in home values over the four years leading up to an election, the county was 0.36 percent more likely to vote for the incumbent party in the next election. 

The study also discovered that each 1 percent in home prices made the county 0.19 percent more likely to 'flip' to vote for the incumbent party candidate.  

'The larger the return [on home values], the more likely you are to vote for the incumbent, or to flip for the incumbent,' Tidwell told Realtor.com. 

'For every percent of positive return, there is a percentage increase in voting for the incumbent.'

In the map below, scroll mouse if you are on a computer or hover your finger on a smartphone to see more details for each areas.   

 

The authors are keen to stress that there are many other factors at play during an election, and home price performance is not 'a forecast on its own.'

Republican nominee Donald Trump has levelled attacks against the Biden administration over rising prices - as the housing market has emerged as a key issue for voters. 

'Under President Biden, home prices have risen almost 50 percent, making it nearly impossible for millennials to buy their first home and driving the American Dream further and further out of reach,' Trump supporter Senator Tim Scott wrote on X. 

But meanwhile, Biden supporters have pointed out that rising house values are a key source of equity for existing homeowners.