MARK ALMOND: If Netanyahu dismisses Biden's peace deal, it'll starkly reveal his desire to put his own interests first

As Israel’s powerbrokers consider the latest ceasefire proposals outlined by US President Joe Biden at the weekend, the reality is that the outcome will ultimately hinge on the self-interest of one man: Benjamin Netanyahu.

Corruption charges have hung over the Israeli prime minister for more than four years – and they are far more serious than the counts on which Donald Trump was convicted last week.

Accusations of fraud and bribery have seen him forced to endure the humiliation of being Israel's first sitting prime minister to appear in court as a defendant.

Netanyahu’s trial has been postponed thanks to the war on Gaza but, to his enemies in the Knesset (Israel’s parliament) it is very much a case of unfinished business. And a guilty verdict could well mean not only the end of his career and financial ruin, but even imprisonment.

As long as Netanyahu retains a majority in the Knesset, however, he has a chance of cutting a deal or perhaps pushing through a change to the way in which judges are chosen – a move that would allow him to appoint justices more sympathetic to his cause. 

Joe Biden announces a proposal for a ceasefire deal between Israel and Hamas on May 31

As long as Netanyahu retains a majority in the Knesset, however, he has a chance of cutting a deal 

The October 7 attacks by Hamas terrorists conveniently silenced loud protests against his plan to do just that.

As things stand, two individuals in particular are keeping him in power.

Israel’s politicians are elected by proportional representation which means governments are always coalitions. This gives huge influence to Netanyahu’s hardline Right-wing partners such as his security minister, Itamar Ben-Gvir of the Jewish Power party, and his finance minister Bezalel Smotrich from the Religious Zionism party.

Both men have threatened to withdraw their support if Netanyahu agrees to a ceasefire before Hamas has been obliterated and all the hostages taken on October 7 have been returned.

What Mr Biden is proposing is quite different: a temporary withdrawal by the Israel Defence Forces [IDF], then a plan for the return of the hostages (or their remains) which would involve a swap of Palestinian prisoners, all leading to a permanent ceasefire and reconstruction plan.

These two positions are essentially irreconcilable. But Israel’s opposition leader, Yair Lapid of the There Is A Future party, has offered a solution: he will back the Netanyahu regime if it adopts America’s plan.

This ‘safety net’, as he calls it, comes with one proviso: Ben-Gvir and Smotrich must be ejected from government.

To the rest of the world, Lapid’s proposal seems generous, a selfless and pragmatic initiative put forward for humanitarian reasons.

To Netanyahu, though, the plan could look like a trap. He will alienate the Right-wingers who have kept him in power, and winning back their support could be difficult if not impossible. And Lapid is making no promises about long-term support.

Netanyahu, who is nothing if not wily, will suspect that his veteran rival is planning to pull the rug from under him once they are sharing power.

So, the chances of a ceasefire come down to the survival calculations of one man. How long can Netanyahu cling on to power if he strikes a deal with Lapid?

Long enough, perhaps, provided the US presidential election in November goes his way – and that means the return of Donald Trump.

Trump is making a shrewd appeal to Jewish voters in America, by pledging his unswerving support to Israel.

He has nothing to lose and much to gain here: Muslim voters are highly unlikely to back him, and Mr Biden could be hit hard by the loss of some traditionally Democratic Jewish voters.

So what will Netanyahu do, stick or twist? He can stick with a narrow majority of arch-Zionist MPs by scorning Mr Biden’s ceasefire but lose America’s support which he knows is essential to fighting Hamas. Or he can gamble on a short-term coalition with the moderate Lapid.