How Trump could lose vital battleground state to Biden - and why it'd be a huge personal blow

Donald Trump could be set to lose Florida to Joe Biden in November's presidential election as the president narrows the gap, polls suggest.

Although Trump currently leads in his home state, which he won in 2016 and 2020, the margin is slim with surveys suggesting the battleground could be a tossup. 

The state twice backed Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012, but Trump turned it solidly red. Yet recent polling in the Sunshine State suggests Biden is only behind by four points.

Two separate surveys, one from Florida Atlantic University (FAU) and Mainstreet Research, revealed that Trump's lead over Biden has decreased over the past two months. 

Losing Florida would be a personal blow to Trump who is a full-time Florida resident thanks to his Mar-a-Lago home

The FAU poll puts Trump at 46 percent and Biden at 42 percent, compared to Trump's 50 percent in April.

Losing Florida would be a personal blow to Trump who is a full-time Florida resident thanks to his Mar-a-Lago home. 

Trump won Florida with 51.2 percent of the vote in 2020, but Biden's improving performance in polling suggests the race will be a competitive one in the state.  

Florida has long been considered a Republican stronghold with Democrats only winning the state in five presidential elections: 1964, 1976, 1996, 2008 and 2012.

President Joe Biden speaks at a reproductive freedom event in Tampa, Florida in April. Biden expressed his administration's opposition to Florida's six-week abortion ban

Republicans have consistently won statewide races for governor, Senate and cabinet, but often by razor margins, raising Democrats' hopes for the next election cycle only to see them dashed again. 

Although there are Democratic strongholds in the southeastern portion of the state with the big cities of Miami and Fort Lauderdale, it is not enough to offset Republican gains in other parts of the state including Broward County and Palm Beach County.

Part of the Republican shift can also be attributed to people living in rural areas of north Florida, remnants of the deep South, changing their registration to reflect their voting patterns. 

Donald Trump gestures next to his birthday cake, created by Club 47, during a campaign rally as he celebrates his 78th birthday at West Palm Convention Center, in West Palm Beach Friday

Two recent polls suggest Biden is gaining ground on Trump in the Sunshine State

Many people registered as Democrats because generations before them did, but the so-called Dixiecrats still voted solidly Republican. 

Democrats are particularly concerned about the trend in Miami-Dade County, home to 1.85 million Hispanic voters and a Democratic stronghold for the past 20 years, where the GOP made significant gains in the last presidential election and could flip it red come November.

But Democrats are hoping that a ballot question that looks to preserve abortion rights will put the state back in play for them.

Although the abortion debate didn't stop Republican Governor Ron DeSantis from winning reelection by a landslide in 2022, even after the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade, by the time the election rolls around, Floridians will have been living with the restrictions for some time.

DeSantis signed new abortion restrictions that ban the procedure after six weeks. Democrats correctly warned he would further strip away rights to the procedure.

Pictured: Trump's Mar-a-Lago Club in Palm, Beach

But the abortion issue cuts across party lines. In a landslide victory for abortion rights supporters, Kansas voters in 2022 rejected a proposed state constitutional amendment that would have stripped residents of abortion rights. 

Kentucky voters similarly rejected a 2022 ballot measure aimed at denying constitutional protections for abortion. 

Last year, abortion rights were front and center in key races, including Ohio, where voters overwhelmingly approved a ballot measure enshrining protections in the state constitution.

The former president has careful not to be too blatant with his views on abortion.

He routinely takes credit for appointing the Supreme Court justices who overturned Roe v. Wade in 2022, paving the way for a wave of new restrictions.

But Trump has also repeatedly criticized fellow Republicans for being too hardline on the issue, blaming candidates who opposed exceptions — in cases of rape, incest and when the life of the mother is at risk — for the party's midterm losses in 2022.