New poll reveals how Trump's hush money conviction has impacted the race in swing states critical in 2024

A new poll in swing states that will decide who wins the White House has Donald Trump holding narrow leads in states Biden carried in 2020 – and even tied in Minnesota. 

Democrats have carried Minnesota for the last dozen presidential elections, sometimes winning by the narrowest of margins. Trump and Biden tied at 45 in the latest Emerson College / The Hill poll.

Things are nearly as tight in Pennsylvania, a state Biden has visited repeatedly as president, with Trump leading Biden 47 to 45.

In a major midwest battleground that Biden carried four years ago, Trump leads 47 to 44 in Wisconsin, which is preparing to play host to the Republican National Convention.

Trump's lead is 46 to 45, well within the poll's error margin. The lead grows to 2 points when Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. is included. He takes 5 percent in the state.  

Former President Donald Trump holds leads in multiple swing states that Joe Biden carried in 2020

Trump leads Biden by three points in battleground Wisconsin and Nevada.

Trump's lead in the batch of swing states come even as Biden has improved his position somewhat in a spate of national polls – raising the prospect that a Democrat could once again prevail in the popular vote while still managing to lose the White House through the Electoral College system that decides the outcome.

Trump's lead is down to a tenth of a percentage point in the fifethirtyeight average – with the former president at 40.6 and Biden at 40.5 percent.

That comes after Biden snagged a 2 point lead in the new Fox News poll, they tied in a YouGov/Economist poll, Biden leads 44 to 43 in a Morning Consult poll, and leads 41 to 39 in a YouGov/New York Post poll. 

The results come weeks after Trump was found guilty by a jury on 34 counts of falsifying financial records in the Stormy Daniels trial in Manhattan. Sentencing is set for September. Biden has stepped up his attacks on Trump, calling him a convicted felon, but has yet to see a major poll boost. The two men are set to meet on a debate stage in Atlanta next week. 

Biden has stepped up his attacks on Trump, calling him a convicted felon

The pro-Trump Maga America Great Again pac blasted out the results, highlighting Minnesota in a five-way poll containing lower-polling candidates where Trump is technically in the lead (though within the error margin). 

It has Trump at 42 percent, Biden at 41, and Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. at 6 percent. Cornel West takes 1 percent and Green Party candidate Jill Stein gets 1 percent. The last Republican to win Minnesota was Richard Nixon in 1972.