The election is 'no longer a toss-up' with one candidate way ahead, top pollster reveals

Polling expert Nate Silver has revealed his forecasting model for the 2024 presidential debate, and it doesn’t look good for Joe Biden.

The election guru’s prediction suggests that Donald Trump is favored to beat Biden, and it’s not even close.

Silver admits his model, similar to what he built for the website FiveThirtyEight for the 2020 election, isn’t perfect and there are still factors to consider in the next few months.

But his initial results show Trump has a 65.7 percent chance of winning, while Biden has just a 33.7 percent chance of victory. Silver said:

The model is ready. And here's our headline: the presidential election isn't a toss-up.

A new swing state poll released Wednesday shows that more of the nation's most influential voters trust former President Donald Trump in handling threats to democracy than President Joe Biden.

The survey could upend the Biden campaign's decision to hinge the president's reelection hopes to him being a better steward of democracy.

The Democratic president wants Americans to care more about January 6 and Trump's 'retribution' and 'dictator' on day one threats than concerns over the border and inflation.

Biden and Trump will debate for the first time since 2020 Thursday night at CNN's headquarters in Atlanta, Georgia.

Hours after Donald Trump called Joe Biden a liar and mocked his golf game in advance of Thursday’s debate, the Biden campaign let loose an attack on his ‘lengthy record of stoking political violence.’

Echoing Biden’s uptick in attacks mentioning Trump’s felony conviction in the Stormy Daniels case and January 6, his campaign said Trump ‘returns to the debate stage for the first time since he encouraged a violent mob on January 6.’

The campaign then lists events including denying the 2020 election results, Trump's second impeachment, promising to deliver ‘retribution,’ says he ‘endorsed physical attacks on protesters’ at his rallies, and ‘warned of a “bloodbath” if he loses.'

‘Donald Trump is a twice-impeached, 34-time convicted felon whose record of attempting to overthrow democracy, promising to enact revenge against his enemies, and inciting political violence at every opportunity makes it clear he belongs nowhere near the White House,’ said Biden campaign spokesman James Singer.

It comes after Trump called Biden ‘crooked’ and a ‘LYING MACHINE’ and said he ‘can't hit the Golf Ball 10 yards.’

Bolvia's President Luis Arce said the country faced an attempted coup and insisted he stands firm and urged people to mobilize.

In a video of Arce surrounded by ministers in his palace, said:

The country is facing an attempted coup d'état. Here we are, firm in Casa Grande, to confront any coup attempt. We need the Bolivian people to organize.

In an extraordinary scene Arce confronted the general commander of the army, Juan José Zúñiga, who appeared to be leading the rebellion, in the palace hallway, as shown on video on Bolivian television. The president told him:

I am your captain, and I order you to withdraw your soldiers, and I will not allow this insubordination,

The United States is closely monitoring a developing situation in Bolivia and urges calm and restraint, the White House National Security Council said.

Bolivian armed forces took over the capital's central square earlier on Wednesday.

An armored vehicle rammed through the entrance to the presidential palace followed by soldiers rushing in, igniting fears of a military coup.

A rebel Bolivian general said he aims to 'restructure democracy'.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu praised a hoodie-and-shorts-clad Sen. John Fetterman during their meeting in Israel on Wednesday for saying it 'like it is.'

The Pennsylvania Democrat has been an outspoken advocate of Israel since the October 7 Hamas attack, to the dismay of his progressive one-time fans.

'Israel has had no better friend than Senator John Fetterman. Senator, welcome to Israel. I want to thank you for your your courageous statements that show moral clarity and moral courage, and you just say the way it is,' Netanyahu said.

Firebrand Republican congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Greene has launched an attempt to cut the salary of Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas.

She put forward an amendment on the House floor that she said would 'effectively fire' Mayorkas.

She said:

My amendment would effectively fire Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas as Secretary of Homeland Security for the atrocious job that he is doing with our southern border and our overall security of our nation.

Earlier this year, the House of Representatives passed my impeachment articles against Secretary Mayorkas, making him the first cabinet secretary to be impeached since 1876. If the House impeached Secretary Mayorkas, we should certainly not pay him.

Ways and Means Chairman Jason Smith, R-Mo., pushed for the need to reform the foster system and reauthorize Title IV-B - and to keep more kids at home with their families. 'Poverty should not be the sole reason a child is removed [from the home],' said Smith.

Smith told DailyMail.com in an inerview after a committee hearing with Paris Hilton: 'Right now, it's so broad, there's no definition of neglect.

He laid out a handful of priorities for reforming the Title IV-B system: the first being focus on on 'interventions' that prevent child abuse and neglect rather than forcing children into the foster system and placing children in 'kinship care' with family members rather into the homes off strangers or facilities.

The committee is also pushing to elevate the role of courts and speed up adjudication of such cases and cut down on the time children spend away from their families, and improve oversight of youth residential treatment facilities and address the 'caseworker crisis' - the child welfare workforce has a high turnover rate of 30 percent.

'We need to make sure that the appropriate oversight is there. Unfortunately, bad actors might be attracted to employment in these facilities, because they know who's vulnerable,' Smith said. 'We need to make sure that there's proper screening.'

Democratic Senator John Fetterman wore his trademark hoodie during his first meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Wednesday.

‘We’ve been through dark times in these months of anguish, war. During that time, I can say that Israel has had no better friend than Sen. John Fetterman’, Netanyahu told him.

‘Thank you for your courageous statements that show moral clarity and moral courage,’ he added.

‘You just say it the way it is, and we appreciate this friendship at all times, but especially in these times.’

Fetterman’s staunch support of Israel since the Hamas terrorist attacks on October 7 has set him at a distance from many Democrats, especially progressives.

He has condemned most calls for a ceasefire in Gaza.

‘We stand with Israel at this time. I am so sorry for what has been done to this nation,’ he told the prime minister. ‘It is an honor to be here today’.

Fetterman was also wearing a bracelet given to him by the families of the hostages taken during the Nova music festival.

An eve-of debate poll shows Donald Trump with a four point lead natrionally over Joe Biden.

The Quinnipiac poll shows Trump's lead in a head-to-head matchup has risen by three points since a month ago.

It shows independents backing Trump over Biden by 51 percent to 41 percent.

If four more candidates are included Trump is on 43 percent and Biden 37 percent.

Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. gets 11 percent, Green Party candidate Jill Stein 2 percent, independent Cornel West 2 percent, and Libertarian Party candidate Chase Oliver 1 percent.

Quinnipiac University Polling Analyst Tim Malloy said:

Trump holds a narrow lead in the head-to-head matchup and is in a slightly better position when all the candidates are included.

The Supreme Court ruling that was inadvertently and briefly posted online indicated that the court's vote was 6-3 as it decided to allow abortions to be performed in Idaho in cases of medical emergencies for pregnant women.

Conservative Justices Clarence Thomas, Samuel Alito and Neil Gorsuch were in dissent.

According to Bloomberg, which obtained the ruling, Liberal Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson issued a separate opinion saying she would not have dismissed the case because there is still an underlying legal dispute to be resolved. She wrote:

Today's decision is not a victory for pregnant patients in Idaho. It is delay. While this court dawdles and the country waits, pregnant people experiencing emergency medical conditions remain in a precarious position, as their doctors are kept in the dark about what the law requires.

The dismissal of the case effectively reinstates a lower court's ruling that had found Idaho's near-total abortion ban must yield to a 1986 U.S. federal law known as the Emergency Medical Treatment and Labor Act (EMTALA).

EMTALA ensures that patients can receive emergency care at hospitals that receive funding under the federal Medicare program.

The inadvertent posting of the Idaho decision is the second time in two years that a major Supreme Court ruling on abortion has been disclosed before being formally issued by the justices.

In May 2022, a draft was leaked of a ruling authored by Justice Samuel Alito.

That ruling was a landmark decision that overturned the 1973 Roe v. Wade precedent that had legalized abortion nationwide.

It was leaked a month before being formally issued.

The culprit behind that deliberate leak has never been identified.

According to the court the latest leak was 'inadvertent' after an official accidentally posted documents online.

Voters in a majority black Georgia county are almost evenly split in their support for Joe Biden and Donald Trump for president, but some wish other surprising candidates would hop in the race.

DeKalb County, a majority black county in Atlanta that broke for Biden by a whopping 67 points in 2020, is expected to be a Democrat stronghold in the upcoming 2024 election.

Ahead of the first presidential debate hosted by CNN this Thursday in Atlanta, DailyMail.com spoke exclusively with black voters from the area about which candidate they are backing and their thoughts ahead of the first political prize fight.

Democrat socialist senator Bernie Sanders is taking aim at the United States' 'corrupt finance system' that he says is to blame for Squad Rep. Jamaal Bowman's loss last night.

He is the first Squad member to be ousted from Congress - in large part due to his anti-Israel views.

Sanders said in a statement Wednesday he blames pro-Israel AIPAC for his defeat.

It is an outrage and an insult to democracy that we maintain a corrupt campaign finance system which allows billionaire-funded super PACs to buy elections.

AIPAC and other super PACs spent over $23 million to defeat Bowman. He spent $3 million. That is a spending gap which is virtually impossible to overcome.

A forthcoming book written by Lunden Roberts, mother of Hunter Biden's 5-year-old daughter Navy Joan, talks about his erratic and devastating behavior after she told him she was pregnant.

Roberts reveals that Hunter had drunken sex with her close friend after she shared her pregnancy news.

The hook-up came days after Hunter heard a recording of the baby's heartbeat.

Lunden also writes that once she found out, Hunter didn't immediately apologize and instead asked her for money to buy a Gatorade from the Dupont Circle CVS.

Out of the Shadows: My Life Inside the Wild World of Hunter Biden will be released on August 20.

Biden will be at the podoum on the right and Trump on the left, after the Biden team won a coin toss and chose.

The two candidates will stand 8ft apart.

Department of Homeland Security Sec. Alejandro Mayorkas told reporters at a press conference at the border that his 'heart goes out' to the families of Americans killed by illegal migrants.

Mayorkas pledged that any illegal migrant criminal will be prosecuted to the fullest extent of the law.

He was also asked about a recent report that federal agents are racing to round up over 400 immigrants who were smuggled into the US through the border by an ISIS-affiliated human smuggling network.

The secretary called it 'inaccurate.'

After the court overturned Roe v. Wade two years ago most Republican-controlled states began enforcing restrictions on abortion.

Idaho is among 14 states that outlaw abortion at all stages of pregnancy with very limited exceptions.

The Biden administration sued Idaho, arguing that hospitals must provide abortions to stabilize pregnant patients in rare emergency cases when their health is at serious risk.

The Supreme Court had previously allowed the Idaho measure to go into effect, even in medical emergencies, while the court case played out.

According to doctors several women have since needed medical airlifts out of state in cases in which abortion is routine treatment to avoid infection, hemorrhage and other health risks.

The court's eventual ruling is expected to have ripple effects on emergency care in other states with strict abortion bans.

A spokesman for the court said the case of Idaho v. United States 'has not been released' even though iot appeared briefly on the court's website.

The spokesman said:

The Court’s Publications Unit inadvertently and briefly uploaded a document to the Court’s website.

The U.S. Supreme Court appears poised to allow abortions to be carried out in Idaho in cases of medical emergencies, Bloomberg reported on Wednesday, citing a copy of a ruling it said was briefly posted on the court's website.

A court spokesperson confirmed the decision was posted 'inadvertently.' The Supreme Court has not officially released its ruling in the case.

The case is the first time the country's highest court has weighed the scope of a state abortion ban after it overturned Roe v Wade in 2022, returning the issue of abortion to states to decide.

Idaho's law bans nearly all abortions with limited exceptions in cases of rape, incest or to save the life of the mother.

The development on Wednesday marked the second time in two years that a major Supreme Court ruling on abortion has been disclosed before being formally issued by the justices.

The Biden administration is considering lifting a long-held ban on U.S. military contractors deploying to Ukraine, according to four officials.

It would mark a huge shift in Pentagon policy as it looks to help Ukrainian forces gain the upper hand after two years fighting Russia.

President Joe Biden has repeatedly resisted any move that could risk escalating the war but officials are reportedly examining the idea that contractors could be allowed into the war-torn country to help maintain and repair U.S. weapons systems.

'We have not made any decisions and any discussion of this is premature,' one administration official told CNN.

'The president is absolutely firm that he will not be sending US troops to Ukraine.'

The 'threat to democracy' posed by Donald Trump is a key plank of Joe Biden's case for re-election.

But a stunning new poll shows key voters in six swing states actually trust Trump more than Biden to protect democracy.

The poll was carried out by The Washington Post and the Schar School of Policy and Government at George Mason University.

It showed 38 percent trust Trump to handle threats to democracy and only 29 percent said the same of Biden, with 23 percent trusting neither.

The poll asked the views of 3,513 voters in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, and then identified 2,255 it classified as key to the outcome of the election.

Justin Gest, a professor of policy and government at George Mason University, told the Washington Post:

Many Americans don’t recognize Biden’s custodianship of our democracy, which is a bad sign for his campaign.

Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez posted a eulogy to Rep. Jamaal Bowman's career on X on Wednesday after his primary loss to George Latimer.

'Son of a single mother. Grew up in public housing. Dedicated his life to teaching. Became a school principal. Founded a prized school to serve Bronx youth. Elected as the 1st Black Congressman for NY16. Never took a dime in corporate money. A true public servant.'

Bowman is the first Squad member to be ousted in favor of a more moderate, pro-Israel Democratic competitor. AOC had campaigned heavily for Bowman ahead of the election.

Ohio Senator J.D. Vance is one of the favorites to be picked as Donald Trump's running mate.

In an honest assessment on Fox News, Vance said he would be a bit disappointed if he doesn't get picked, but there are other important things in life too. Vance said:

If it doesn’t happen, there’s certainly going to be a little bit of disappointment.

But the bigger thing is, it’s such a cool thing to get to do the job that I do. And frankly, more importantly than that, I love being a Dad and Usha (his wife) loves being a Mom. I think we’d love doing that together. And that’s not going to change whether Trump asked me to be vice president or not.

Republicans are significanlty happier with Donald Trump as their presidential nominee than Democrats are with Joe Biden as theirs, a new poll shows.

The AP-NORC poll shows six in 10 Republicans are satisfied with Trump as their nominee.

But just 42 percent of Democrats say the same about Biden.

The poll also shows how crucial the dewbate could be to the outcome of the election with six in 10 U.S. adults saying they plan to watch some element of it.

That means they will see it live or in clips, or read about it, or listen to commentary about the performance of the candidates in the news or social media.

It suggests tens of millions of Americans are likely to be impacted by the debate.

The war in Gaza is an especially vulnerable issue for Biden, with only 26 percent of U.S. adults approving of his handling of the crisis, according to the eve-of debate poll.

Joe Biden has welcomed the appointment of Mark Rutte, the outgoing Dutch Prime Minister, as head of NATO.

The White House said Biden believes he will be an 'excellent' NATO chief and advance efforts to support Ukraine.

Rutte, 57, will take over from Jens Stoletenberg as Secretary-General in October.

White House National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said:

President Biden strongly believes that Mark Rutte will make an excellent Secretary-General.

Things got personal the last time Donald Trump and Joe Biden shared a debate stage.

Down in the polls after a campaign upended by the pandemic, Trump called Biden 'corrupt' and brought up the 'laptop from hell.' During the vicious 2020 debates Biden told Trump to 'shut up' after his frequent interruptions, and they traded accusations on their personalities and records.

Thursday's prime-time contest on CNN is certain to feature other angry clashes, with Biden's team already calling Trump a threat to democracy and Trump's team asserting that Biden is on drugs – even though the two sides negotiated on rules that will diminish some opportunities for drama. That could limit, or at least modify, some of the tense viral cross-talk moments.

One such explosion took place when Trump and Biden met during the Cleveland debate, when Biden was asked about either ending the filibuster or 'packing the court' to get Democratic priorities through.

President Joe Biden will try to 'trigger' former President Donald Trump when they meet on the debate stage Thursday night in Atlanta.

NBC News reported earlier this week on the Democrat's debate strategy.

Biden's advisers are studying all of Trump's recent comments trying to figure out what the president could say to get the Republican to lash out.

The Biden campaign wants the American people to see 'rally' Trump - where he's bombastic and borderline unhinged - versus a more restrained and presidential version of the candidate.

Paris Hilton testified on Capitol Hill about the devastating experience she suffered through in a youth rehabilitation facility as she advocated for sweeping reforms to the foster and youth rehab system.

'When I was 16 years old. I was ripped from my bed in the middle of night and transported across state lines to the first four residential facilities,' Hilton told the House Ways and Means Committee.

'For two years I was force-fed medications and sexually abused by the staff. I was violently restrained ... stripped naked, thrown in solitary confinement,' the Hilton hotels heiress went on.

Speaker Mike Johnson disclosed that the House of Representatives will file a lawsuit next week in federal court to try and force the Justice Department to hand over Biden's special counsel audio tapes.

Johnson accused DOJ of 'editing' Biden's transcript in some ways, so 'it's really appropriate and important' to get their hands on the audio tapes.

'We will fight vigorously to get it,' he added.

The speaker noted that Rep. Anna Paulina Luna's proposal to file an 'inherent contempt' resolution that would lead to Garland's arrest if he doesn't hand over the tapes has 'not been settled on yet.'

Earlier this month, House Republicans voted to hold Attorney General Merrick Garland in contempt of Congress after he refused to hand over audio of President Biden's special counsel interview with Robert Hur.

During the interview, Hur said that Biden appeared 'elderly' with a 'poor memory' as he mixed up his son Beau's death date and had a series of other stumbles.

The contempt charge is a formal recommendation that Garland be prosecuted. He's likely to be shielded from legal repercussions since Biden has asserted executive privilege over the audio.

And DOJ said it won't pursue a prosecution against Garland for defying the subpoena.

In its first opinion of the day, the court reversed a decision by the 5th Circuit Court of appeals on social media censorship.

They ruled 6-3 that that the plaintiffs - the conservative states in this case - do not have standing, handing a win to the Biden administration.

The Republican-led states had argued that the Biden administration illegally and unconstitutionally worked with social media companies to squash conservative views on their platforms during the COVID pandemic.

All eyes are on the Supreme Court this morning as the justices still have 14 cases to decide.

The most closely watched cases include: Whether ex-President Trump has immunity, the January 6 defendants' obstruction charges (which will impact Trump's case too), social media and abortion.

On Tuesday night Republicans swore in Rep. Michael Rulli, R-Ohio, bringing the total number of members to 432 - 219 Republicans, 213 Democrats.

Rulli replaced retiring Rep. Bill Johnson, R-Ohio.

There are three vacancies: late Rep. Donald Payne Jr., D-N.J., died. Former  Reps. Ken Buck, R-Colo., and Mike Gallagher, R-Wis., resigned.

Republicans can lose two of their own votes and still pass party-line legislation.

Donald Trump was granted a 45-day extension to file personal financial disclosure with the Federal Election Commission.

Trump's legal team requested the extra time due to the complex financials of the former president and presumed 2024 Republican nominee.

"A hard copy of the report bearing Mr. Trump's original signature is now due and should be received by the Federal Election Commission by August 15, 2024."

Trump's financial closures are closely watched because it gives insight into his personal wealth, which is often a topic of debate.

The extension comes after Trump was levied a $300 million civil fraud fine and $80 million E. Jean Carroll judgment.

Democrats are welcoming Donald Trump to Atlanta for the debate with a billboard calling out his new felon status.

With an image of his mugshot from his election interference case in Georgia, the DNC's five billboard reads: 'Donald. Welcome to Atlanta for the first time since becoming a convicted felon. Congrats - or whatever...'

Trump was convicted of 34 felonies in the Manhattan hush money trial, but is still facing three other criminal trials – including in Fulton County, Georgia.

'The DNC understands the importance of Southern hospitality, so it is our pleasure to welcome Donald Trump back to the Peach State for the first time since becoming a convicted felon,' DNC Spokesperson Jackie Bush said in a statement on the ads.

'The man Georgia voters rejected in 2020 has only gotten more unhinged and vengeful in the past four years.'

Speaker Mike Johnson commented on speculation from Donald Trump’s camp that Joe Biden will be on drugs or using a performance-enhancing substance at Thursday’s debate.

Trump has suggested his rival will be ‘so pumped up’ and hinted that he could even take cocaine before their primetime CNN showdown.

Johnson appeared on the network on Tuesday night and was asked about the former president’s comments.

‘Look, there’s a lot of things that are said in jest. Of course, no one expects that Joe Biden will be on cocaine.’

Johnson did say that questions about Joe’s ability to lead are warranted and his energy levels are a concern.

Speculation about who will be Donald Trump’s running mate and when he will announce his pick is changing every day.

Some reports have said the major reveal could come as soon as this week, while others have said it won’t be until the Republican convention later this month.

But the Trump campaign is lapping up every development, and keeping everyone guessing.

‘ahh this is such an amazing scoop! yes ..it could come as soon as today …or …sometime in mid july !!’, senior Trump campaign advisor Chris LaCivita wrote in response to an NBC News report that the pick could be revealed in the coming days.

Donald Trump is attacking his debate opponent on Truth Social. He writes:

Crooked Joe Biden’s “Handlers” are loudly and profusely complaining that there will be no Fact Checkers during the Debate on Thursday. Actually, that is just DISINFORMATION - They could not be happier, because there is nobody that’s as loose with the TRUTH as Crooked Joe.

He accuses Biden of being a 'walking LYING MACHINE, and a Fact Checker’s DREAM.'

The Republican candidate adds:

From the 51 Fake Intelligence Agents, to Russia, Russia, Russia, to the Fake “Suckers and Losers Story” he created about our beloved Military, to cheating in College and saying he was first in his Law School Class when he was actually LAST, to claiming he marched for Civil Rights, drove trucks, and has a 6.2 Handicap (He can’t hit the Golf Ball 10 yards, but that’s a minor detail!)...Maybe we should call him “Lyin’ Joe” in addition to Crooked?

Former Republican Rep. Adam Kinzinger has endorsed Joe Biden and Kamala Harris the day before the debate.

The Trump critic and ex-January 6 committee member announced in a video that he was backing the Democrats in 2024. despite being a ‘proud conservative’.

‘I’ve always put democracy and our Constitution above of all us. It’s because of my unwavering support for democracy that today, as a proud conservative, I’m endorsing Joe Biden for reelection.

The Illinois lawmaker, a frequent guest on CNN, admitted he never thought he would be voting for the Democrats.

Biden replied: ‘This is what putting your country before your party looks like’.

Donald Trump has suggested Biden be drug-tested ahead of Thursday night's debate, and has offered to take one himself.

Biden campaign spokeswoman Adrienne Elrod was asked on CNN to respond. She said:

I mean, I don‘t even really know what to say about that. I worked on Hillary Clinton‘s campaign. She had also debated him very effectively. He accused her of being on drugs. President Biden defeated Donald Trump twice in previous debates.

This is what he does because he doesn‘t have anything else to run on. And so he has to resort to these types of tactics which are frankly just silly and turn off a lot of voters, especially voters who want to see their president fight for them.