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Preston Cooper has bad news for those studying make-up, manicures, and hairstyling.
They're on track to lose $114,036 over the course of their careers, the researcher has found.
That's because their future earnings won't offset the costs of tuition, books, and lost earnings while they're studying cosmetology.
Those seeking a better return on investment (ROI) should look elsewhere when choosing a two-year course, Cooper says.
Plumbers easily repay their tuition costs and earn more than they would otherwise — the ROI over their career is $204,624.
Learning a trade can be a route to riches ... but not always.
The best two-year course for big bucks is in maintaining heavy industrial equipment, research has found, with lifetime returns of $595,195.
'What students want most out of postsecondary education is a good-paying job,' Cooper told DailyMail.com.
'Sometimes four-year degrees can provide that, but not always. A growing number of students are considering trade school as an alternative to college, as many trade programs have a proven track record of increasing earnings.'
Choose your course wisely, says education researcher Preston Cooper
Cooper crunched the numbers on 53,000 courses and certificate programs at US schools.
He used data from the US Department of Education's College Scorecard.
On average, two-year technical certificates offered returns of $313,022.
That's about twice as good as bachelor's programs, with an ROI of $159,751, he found.
But the ROI from different trade courses varies hugely, says his report for the Foundation for Research on Equal Opportunity, a nonprofit think tank.
Those studying to be mechanics, electrical repairers and installers can expect returns of more than $300,000.
Metalworkers and those who study heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) also do well, with a career ROI of some $250,000.
But some trade courses are less profitable.
Learning how to be a mechanic is among the best rates of return, with a career dividend of nearly $340,000
A two-year associate nursing degree is a sound financial bet, with a lifetime return on investment of nearly $223,679
Carpenters can only expect returns of $79,365, while those studying construction will gain only $15,520 over their careers.
And then, warns Cooper, are the courses that actually lose students money.
The average student of cosmetology will be down $114,036 over the course of their career.
Likewise, those studying two-year associate degrees in liberal arts and education will be out-of-pocket by $9,361 and $17,938 respectively, the study shows.
The reason for such wide disparities is supply and demand in the job market, says Cooper.
There are plenty of people with cosmetology certificates competing for low-paid jobs in beauty salons.
But not many workers can maintain and repair industrial equipment, and managers pay top dollar to keep assembly lines moving.
'Sub-baccalaureate credentials tend to serve students well when they prepare for a specific career path, provided that career path has reasonably high wages,' says Cooper.
But, Cooper adds, prospective tradespeople also need to choose their institution wisely.
Many of the community and proprietary colleges that offer two-year courses suffer from low graduation rates, he says.
Those who drop out before getting a certificate are losing time and money, he adds.
The survey comes as millions of high schoolers and their families are weighing whether a college degree makes financial sense.
Those who study heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) enjoy a career ROI of more than $250,000
Learning how to maintain and repair industrial plant gear offers the best return among all the trades
Tuition fees have risen so much faster than inflation that many families have begun to question the value of college costs.
Many are deterred by eye-watering tuition fees, which at some top schools exceed $70,000 a year for four-year bachelor's degree courses.
Average costs of tuition and fees for the 2023-2024 academic year were more $11,260 at public colleges and nearly $41,540 at private institutions, according to the College Board.
Annual costs for trade schools are often much lower, between $5,000-$20,000, says Best Colleges.
Many young people don't want to start their adulthood saddled with college debts, and shorter, cheaper courses for marketplace-ready technical skills can look more appealing than longer, traditional degrees.
A recent Pew Research Center survey showed many Americans are questioning the value and usefulness of four-year degrees.
Many now see trade schools and apprenticeship programs as able to produce gainful workers faster than most colleges or universities.
Almost half say a degree is only worth the expense if students don't require a loan to attain it, the poll showed.
Almost a third of the respondents say the cost of a four-year college degree is not worth earning if students have to borrow to get the degree.