Under-fire progressive mayor of crime-ridden California city is accused of fiddling with figures to make it look like lawbreaking is finally dropping

Oakland Mayor Sheng Thao and California Governor Gavin Newsom bragged that a huge drop in crime meant the city was 'turning the corner'.

Total crime across Oakland for the first four months of the year appeared to show a 33 per cent decline when compared to 2023's early-year crime wave. 

But on closer inspection, the statistics they cited amounted to comparing apples to hand grenades in the notoriously crime-plagued city.

Data published in weekly Oakland Police Department updates isn't manipulated, but its presentation is misleading despite a fine-print disclaimer.

Oakland Mayor Sheng Thao bragged that a huge drop in crime meant the city was 'turning the corner'

A massive crowd robs Oakland gas station after a car crashed into the glass to break in

The April 22 to 28 report cited by Thao and Newsome recorded 10,805 total crimes in 2024 to date, way down from 16,008 in the same period of 2023.

Similarly, burglaries halved from 6,026 to 3,013, as did larceny from 3,300 to 1,636, and vehicle theft fell 12 per cent from 4,560 to 4,027.

However, the report compared the fully compiled year-end 2023 statistics with the ongoing count for 2024.

Comparing the same report from April 17 to 23, 2023, shows drastic differences in the number of crime records compared to the 2024 version.

The older report had just 3,849 burglaries, 2,282 larceny incidents, 3,874 vehicle thefts, and 11,915 total crimes - all much smaller declines.

Total crime across Oakland for the first four months of the year appeared to show a 33 per cent decline when compared to 2023's early-year crime wave

 But comparing the same report from April 17 to 23, 2023, shows drastic differences in the number of crime records compared to the 2024 version

The discrepancy is explained by the time lag in processing and compiling crime reports compared to when they actually occurred.

'Statistics can be affected by late reporting, the geocoding process, or the reclassification or unfounding of crimes,' a disclaimer in all reports states.

'Because crime reporting and data entry can run behind, all crimes may not be recorded.'  

This is particularly stark for nonviolent crimes like burglaries and vehicle theft, which often rely on reports filed online, and are investigated later as they are a lower priority.

'There can be a delay in the overall number of reported property crimes based on our community's use of the online reporting system,' police said.

'Each of these online crime reports must be reviewed and verified by a member of our staff before being included in crime statistics.'

Thao's tweet on May 1 bragging about the reported 33 per cent drop that was based on a misleading statistical comparison

Police have for many years struggled with understaffing in their records department, and a report management system not updated since 2006.

Oakland police head of burglary and general crimes Lieutenant Barry Donelan explained 'decrepit IT infrastructure' and mismatched software was to blame.

'Do we know there are shortcomings in the numbers? Yes. Is there a desire among professional law enforcement to fix that? Oh, yes,' he told the San Francisco Chronicle.

He said police were not concealing the true numbers, the outdated systems and insufficient staff just couldn't keep up. 

Crime statistics in Oakland could also be wildly inaccurate in the other direction, such as the year-end data sent to the Department of Justice earlier this year.

The report claimed aggravated assaults skyrocketed from 3,329 in 2022 to 11,169 after being steady for years and conflicting with other year-end data.

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There is no reliable way to know how much crime fell in Oakland in the first four months of 2024, or at any time, until at least the end of the year.

Oakland crime statistics tend to get more accurate as the year goes on as police get to the lower-priority cases and undercounted crimes make up an increasingly smaller part of the total.

Timothy Gardner of Oakland Report, who analyzed the crime statistics on his Substack, explained that violent crime reports were mostly accurate because they were higher priority.

By contrast, burglaries and other property crimes were lower priority and reported online or to dispatch, which took longer to sort through and follow up, and resulted in sometimes wildly inaccurate statistics.

Analysis by Timothy Gardner of Oakland Report of the historical inaccuracies between ongoing and final crime statistics

'Given that burglaries are more than 35 per cent of total crime, this also has a significant impact on the under-counting of total crime. Total crime has been under-counted by 20-35 per cent as of April/May in recent years,' he wrote.

'Thus the Mayor's judgement of year-to-date crime is almost certainly an underestimate of true 2024 crime by 20-35 per cent. 

'The mayor... claimed that total crime has fallen 33 per cent year to date - which is consistent with the historical under-counting error. And it is very likely the claimed crime drops would disappear if full data was available.'

Gardner said politicians and the media shouldn't use incomplete statistics, and should be sure to compare 'apples to apples'.

The other problem, he said, was that government initiatives to address the root causes of crime often took years to show up on the ground, and couldn't be bragged about a few months later or without rigorous research.