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LORD ASHCROFT: US voters are increasingly convinced Trump will be re-elected
This weekend, Republicans gather at their convention in Milwaukee in the wake of two events that in another era would have seemed like political earthquakes.
The first was Donald Trump's conviction in a New York court on 34 counts of falsifying business records, meaning that his party will next week formally nominate a felon for the highest office in the land.
His sentencing, initially due on Friday, has been postponed until September as judges absorb the implications of a Supreme Court ruling that Presidents cannot be prosecuted for official acts carried out in office.
Then came Joe Biden's stumbling performance in the pair's first head-to-head TV debate, forcing Americans to confront the question of whether their commander-in-chief was up to the job now, let alone his likely capabilities in four years' time.
Thursday night's Nato press conference, in which he introduced Ukraine's leader Volodymyr Zelensky as 'president Putin' and referred to his own deputy as 'vice president Trump', hardly alleviated their doubts. The chain of events sums up the big issue facing voters in November: the two candidates' fitness for office, whether moral or literal.
More voters believe Donald Trump's convictions will help rather than hinder his chances of being elected in November
Many see the charges against Trump as a political exercise rather than a legal one, part of a long campaign to discredit the former President that goes back to 2016
Perhaps even more remarkable than the two momentous stories themselves is that neither made a significant dent in the polls.
In my three surveys conducted before and after the verdicts, and again after the TV debate, I found that, if anything, Trump's position has slightly strengthened since his case concluded – but neither event led to a movement outside the margin of error.
Nearly half of 2020 Trump voters say his convictions make them more likely to vote for him in November, and more voters now think the legal proceedings against him will help his chances than hinder them.
Non-Americans wonder at this: how can a candidate being convicted of fraud make no difference to his standing? There are several answers.
One is that many see the charges against Trump as a political exercise rather than a legal one, part of a long campaign to discredit the former President that goes back to 2016. Another is that people admire his sticking power and his continuing capacity to overcome adversity, even if he generates some of that adversity himself.
But most of all, as always, they weigh it against everything else and decide that other things matter more – especially a struggling economy, worrying overseas commitments and the memory of better times under President Trump.
As a woman in Pennsylvania told us: 'I'm not a fan of his behaviour and a lot of the terrible things he's done. But, from a business standpoint, he does a fantastic job. He said things people didn't want to hear but it was the truth and people had to hear it.'
For much of his presidency, Biden's re-election campaign has been a race against time.
The worse the economy feels, the more willing voters will be to overlook Trump's obvious shortcomings and put him back in the White House; the taller the green shoots of economic recovery, the less stomach they will have for the 4am tweets and other daily features of the Donald Trump show.
As my poll found, the country is divided as to which matters more – Biden's physical and mental capacity or Trump's character and judgment. From Biden's point of view, this means that the economy has to work harder to compensate.
America is divided as to which matters more – Biden's physical and mental capacity or Trump's character and judgment, writes LORD ASHCROFT
Only a quarter of voters, including only one in three of those who voted for Biden in 2020, say they feel better off than they did four years ago
Yet, despite improving indicators such as lower inflation and a rising stock market, few Americans are yet feeling better off. Part of the Democrats' problem is that people compare their present circumstances with how things were pre-Covid, which also happens to be pre-Biden.
This might be unfair, but politics is a bit like that – and only a quarter of voters, including only one in three of those who voted for Biden in 2020, say they feel better off than they did four years ago.
At the same time, the new prominence of Biden's health as a campaign issue effectively neutralises Trump's downsides.
The natural move would be to pass the baton to Vice President Kamala Harris, but it is clear that this puts the Democrats in even more of a quandary. They fear that they cannot win with Harris at the top of the ticket, and with good reason: her approval ratings are no better than the President's.
But they can't throw open the contest to other potential nominees without appearing to show disrespect to a woman of colour and causing the most almighty row on the American Left (which no one would enjoy more than Trump).
It is dawning on some that they can preserve the fragile unity of the Democratic party, or they can hold on to the White House, but they might not be able to do both.
Trump's support looks resilient. Americans say he would do a better job than Biden on four of the five biggest issues – the cost of living, the economy and jobs, immigration and crime – and is for now at least doing better among younger and minority voters than recent Republicans could dream of.
It is older voters who most back Biden on the back of issues such as Medicare and social security, as well as greater sympathy over his age-related controversies
As party loyalties weaken, people increasingly look for the candidate they think would do the better job for them, however much their choice might have horrified their grandparents.
Meanwhile, it is older voters who most back Biden – whether because they trust him more to protect Medicare and social security, hold a certain idea of how a President should comport himself, or have a sneaking sympathy with him over his age-related controversies.
One of the ways in which this election is unusual is that it does not come down to 'change' versus 'the devil you know'. Instead, Americans are faced with two devils they know only too well.
In 2020, they voted to replace the chaos and division with what they hoped would be some semblance of moderation and calm. Four years later, many say life feels no better and they have a President with his own very obvious flaws.
The contest is still four months away, and it feels as though there is room for at least one more dramatic chapter in this story. We don't know how the legal cases will be resolved, or how the Democrats' internal drama will unfold. But my polling did find one thing that changed after the now infamous debate: more Americans became convinced that Trump would win.
Lord Ashcroft is an international businessman, author, philanthropist and pollster. His research is at LordAshcroftPolls.com. Follow him on X/Facebook @LordAshcroft