Rise of the assassins: Violent deaths and the attempted murder of politicians are becoming more and more common... with divisive rhetoric spouted by lawmakers to blame

Last weekend the United States witnessed the first shooting of a current or former president since March 1981 when Ronald Reagan narrowly escaped an assassination attempt with his life. 

Like Reagan - who survived a ricocheting bullet hitting him in the chest - Donald Trump cheated death when a round fired by gunman Thomas Matthew Crooks grazed his ear at a rally in Pennsylvania on Saturday.

The shocking attack, which left him bloodied but otherwise unhurt, only appeared to make Trump more defiant than ever and could well prove a key factor that influences the outcome of November's presidential elections. 

But the attempt on Trump's life is by no means an isolated incident of political violence. 

Rather, it is simply the latest in a disturbing trend of polarisation and aggression towards elected officials gripping Western democracies and other developed nations in recent years. 

Since former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe was shot dead in 2022, there have been a slew of shootings, stabbings and other attacks on world leaders - not to mention the murder of British MP David Amess in 2021 - and various attempts that were only just foiled.

Now, in the aftermath of Trump's brush with death, MailOnline examines some of the most shocking assassination attempts on the leaders of the developed world in recent years and speaks to experts about why political violence appears to be getting worse, not better. 

Republican candidate Donald Trump is seen with blood on his face surrounded by secret service agents as he is taken off the stage at a campaign event at Butler Farm Show Inc. in Butler, Pennsylvania, July 13, 2024

Donald Trump is pictured as he begins to take cover after being shot in the ear by Thomas Matthew Crooks on Saturday 13 July

Security teams haul Slovakian Prime Minister Robert Fico to be rushed to hospital after he was shot several times in May

Lee Jae-myung, leader of South Korea's main opposition Democratic Party, lies down after he was stabbed by an assailant on the left side of his neck in January

In many countries around the world, murder and attempted murder of top government figures occur on a regular basis.

Political leaders and high-ranking officials are routinely targeted, particularly in nations that have been wracked by civil war, economic ruin or extremism, such as Syria, Iraq and Venezuela where dozens of politicians have been slain. 

Meanwhile in Mexico, the influence of fearsome cartels over the nation's politics saw a horrifying total of 37 candidates murdered in the run-up to April's elections, and more than 800 injured. 

In the US, Europe and other leading liberal democracies such as Japan and South Korea, any attack on top politicians is a shocking occurrence - but such incidents are becoming more common. 

Professor Sarah Birch, Professor of Political Science at King's College London (KCL) told MailOnline: 'The evidence shows that attacks on politicians declined across the democratic world between 1945 and the mid-2000s - but it has been on the rise since then. 

'This worrying pattern indicates that electoral violence has increased in democracies in recent years.'

France - one of the EU's largest and most powerful democracies - experienced a 12-fold increase in violence against politicians, according to the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project, with more than 50 attacks on officials in just three weeks before July's tumultuous elections. 

Germany - the EU's other democratic powerhouse - has seen over 10,000 attacks on politicians in just the last five years.

Though the UK has not seen such levels of violence, it has witnessed two heinous murders of MPs - Jo Cox in 2016 and David Amess in 2021. Cox was murdered by far-right extremist Thomas Mair, while Amess succumbed to injuries inflicted by Islamic State sympathiser Ali Harbi Ali. 

But several of the world's foremost democracies have seen assassinations - or attempted murders - of individuals at the pinnacle of politics in their countries in just the past two years.

Donald Trump 

The most recent example, of course, was exhibited just last weekend when Donald Trump avoided death by mere millimetres.

The 78-year-old survived the horrifying assassination attempt with nothing more than a pierced ear, having turned his head just as gunman Thomas Matthew Crooks, 20, fired upon him from just 150 yards away at a rally in Butler, Pennsylvania.

Crooks snapped off several shots, killing fireman Corey Comperatore who dove in front of his family and critically wounding two other attendees, before he was shot dead by a counter sniper team. 

Trump meanwhile became the subject of what is sure to become one of the most iconic images in American political history when he was pictured ordering his secret service agents to halt their attempt to bundle him off stage so he could defiantly pump his fist at the crowd, blood streaming down his cheek. 

Robert Fico 

In May, Slovakian Prime Minister Robert Fico was greeting supporters after a political meeting in the town of Handlova when he was shot at near-point-blank range by 71-year-old Juraj Cintula.

Fico, 59, 'escaped death by just a hair' following a life-saving five-hour surgery after sustaining five gunshot wounds in the stomach and arm. 

Cintula, a grey-haired, bearded grandfather and poet was charged with attempted murder after investigators established he had a 'clear political motivation' for carrying out the shooting, adding the 'perpetrator's decision was born closely after the presidential election'.

He had previously founded a group known as the 'Movement Against Violence', which implored the Slovak people to 'take to the streets and show strength, but not violence' in response to the perceived collapse of society due to 'the oligarchs and rich people who buy political representatives'.  

Fico meanwhile has steadily returned to public life and remains Slovakia's Prime Minister, but is still struggling significantly with his injuries.

He is now reliant on a cane to walk and is closely supported by a team of aides to carry out his duties. 

Former US President Donald Trump is rushed off stage by secret service after being shot

Slovakian security agents dive into action to apprehend shooter Juraj Cintula

Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico is transferred at the F.D. Roosevelt University Hospital after he was wounded in a shooting incident in Handlova, in Banska Bystrica, Slovakia, May 15, 2024

Slovakia's Prime Minister Robert Fico walks during celebrations of the 2024 Harvest Day, in Slovenska Nova Ves, Slovakia, July 8, 2024

Juraj Cintula faces a life sentence after investigators accused him of attempted premeditated murder on Fico

Lee Jae-myung

In January, South Korean opposition leader Lee Jae-myung came close to death after he was stabbed in the neck and left to bleed out on the pavement in the city of Busan.

Lee spent eight days in hospital recuperating after a lifesaving surgery following the attack which came two years after he was defeated in South Korea's closest-ever presidential election.

His would-be assassin, a man named only as Kim, approached the politician for an autograph, only to launch his frenzied attack as he leant in to sign. 

Harrowing images showed Lee collapsed on the floor, his face a picture of pain as aides desperately applied pressure to his neck to stem the flow of blood.  

Kim, who on July 5 was jailed for 15 years, told prosecutors he felt he had to murder Lee to stop him from ever becoming South Korea's president - an act which Korean media said posed 'a grave challenge to the country's election systems' and showed a 'lack of confidence in the basic liberal democratic principles'. 

Fumio Kishida

Less than a year after the murder of former Japanese Prime Minister Abe, incumbent premier Fumio Kishida was attacked with a pipe bomb as he held a campaign event in Wakayama in April 2023. 

He was delivering a speech to the crowd when Ryuji Kimura hurled the home-made explosive device at the prime minister's feet.

Kishida's security detail leapt into action, pulling their charge away from the device which exploded moments later, injuring a policeman and a bystander.

Kimura meanwhile was preparing to launch a second bomb when he was tackled by onlookers and held down until police detained him. 

The attacker had previously filed a lawsuit seeking damages from the government, claiming he was unfairly blocked from running for election himself. 

'Such a challenge to democracy must not be tolerated,' he said.

South Korean opposition leader Lee Jae-myung is seen after he was injured in Busan, South Korea

South Korean opposition leader Lee Jae-myung on a stretcher arrives at a heliport in Seoul, South Korea, Tuesday, Jan. 2, 2024

A pipe bomb is pictured moments before detonation as Kishida is bundled away

Kishida was evacuated from the port in Wakayama as Kimura was pinned down and arrested

A man points a gun at Argentina's Vice President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner. He tried to fire but the gun jammed

Fernando Sabag Montiel sits in court for his trial for attempted aggravated murder of Argentina's former president

Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner 

Former President and Vice President of Argentina Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner narrowly survived an assassination attempt outside her Buenos Aires home on September 1, 2022.

The politician was interacting with supporters close by her residence when a man named Fernando Sabag Montiel stepped through the crowd and aimed a semi-automatic pistol at her head from mere feet away.

De Kirchner was only saved from certain death thanks to sheer luck - the shooter's gun, which was loaded with five bullets, jammed as he pulled the trigger and gave security teams the opportunity to dive in and arrest him on the spot as the politician was hustled away.

Montiel's motives are unclear, though investigators believe a mix of political and personal discontent led him to the attempted murder.

He has personally given few statements on the matter, but expressed he held no remorse over the attempt on the Vice President's life. 

Shinzo Abe 

Former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe was fatally shot on July 8, 2022, while delivering a campaign speech in the city of Nara. 

His assassin, Tetsuya Yamagami, used a homemade firearm to blast Abe from behind, but the first shot missed and prompted his target to turn around to face the threat. 

The second shot hit the leader in the chest and neck, causing huge blood loss. 

Abe was airlifted to a hospital but doctors were unable to save him and pronounced him dead roughly five hours later. 

The attack shocked Japan, which had experienced very low levels of political violence along with strict gun controls. 

Yamagami's motivations stemmed from personal grievances and believed Abe had connections to the Unification Church, which he blamed for his family's financial ruin. 

The moment Shinzo Abe was fatally shot

Tetsuya Yamagami, bottom, is detained near the site of gunshots in Nara Prefecture directed at Shinzo Abe, western Japan, Friday, July 8, 2022

Japan's former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe was shot dead in 2022

People watch as a vehicle carrying the body of the late former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, who was shot while campaigning for a parliamentary election, leaves after his funeral at Zojoji Temple in Tokyo, Japan July 12, 2022

Violence is increasing - but why?

Dr Andreas Schedler, Senior Research Fellow at the CEU Democracy Institute, said that politicians themselves are one of the key drivers of polarisation that creates the conditions for political violence, referring to Trump's rhetoric as a prime example.

'I really think that the key players are politicians when political camps start suspecting each other's commitment to the basics of democracy... someone like Donald Trump has been involved in destroying what I call basic democratic trust.

'He has portrayed the justice system, the electoral system as rigged - if you erode basic confidence in what is supposed to be our insurance, institutions that are committed to impartiality, then you get into really dangerous terrain. It's most advanced in the US but we have seen traces of that elsewhere as well.

He continued: 'It's not just Democrats viewing Trump and Republicans as a threat to democracy... Republicans have a very similar perception of Joe Biden and Democrats as kind of power seeking people who are much more committed to their ideological goals than the basic rules of the game.

'If you think the other side is playing foul then it's really a small step towards violence, even if most people are not willing to take it,' he concluded. 

Dr Petra Alderman, a research fellow with the Centre for Elections, Democracy, Accountability and Representation (CEDAR), added: 'Many Western (and also non-Western) democracies have become polarised over support for political figures who have capitalised on rising dissatisfaction by resorting to identity politics that are often underpinned by language of dehumanisation, hatred, and violence. 

'This has created a dangerous political environment that is characterised by ''us-versus-them'' group dynamics and increasing perceptions that politics is a zero-sum game - where one person's gain is another person's loss.'

The experts said these approaches by politicians create an 'anything goes' political environment that encourages people to take extreme actions.

Joel Busher, Professor of Political Sociology, explained how the divisive rhetoric of individual leaders and parties can spark violence without directly calling for it.

'Political leaders' and parties' rhetoric is part of this – it can harden the boundaries between in- and out-groups, making polarisation and aggression more likely – even if it is not clear that it motivates violence per se, it can provide justification for violence. 

'This can be done in a number of ways, for example, the vilification of particular out-groups, and the intensification of threatening narratives.'

But Professor Bobby Duffy, Director of the KCL Policy Institute, said there are numerous factors contributing to the increase in political violence in the democratic world, with the jury still out as to which is the most impactful.

Republican Presidential nominee and former President Donald Trump kisses his wife Melania Trump days after he was shot

The Slovak Prime Minister, Robert Fico (R), walks to wheat fields with the Minister of Agriculture, Richard Takac as he recovers from injuries

A woman prays at a floral tribute set up near the site in Nara, Nara prefecture on July 8, 2024, where Japan's former prime minister Shinzo Abe was fatally shot while delivering an election campaign speech two years ago

'There's a very live debate on the extent to which this is top-down - driven by divisive rhetoric and identity politics from both media and political leaders - or bottom-up, where it comes from citizens themselves. 

'We see that discussion a lot when trying to explain how ''culture wars'' have emerged, particularly in the US between Republican and Democrat supporters, and the deep identity divides seen there. 

'In the end, it will almost certainly be a mix of both, where the tone and nature of political and media discussions do play an important role in the nature and depth of division. 

'There are certainly reasons to be concerned – for example, the Capitol riots following the 2020 US election are a key example where the strength of political identities, and dislike for the other side, led some to question the outcome of the election itself, and act on that.'

Dr Schedler admitted that there are no obvious answers as to how to buck the unsettling trend.

But he implored individuals to take responsibility and be vigilant of virulent rhetoric from political leaders.

'I think generally speaking it is very difficult to reverse... we need to think about how to bring citizens together, how to overcome the communicative pathologies that polarisation entails, and how to argue while still taking the other side seriously.

'We really have to maintain our vigilance, and say okay, where are these critiques and shocking statements given by politicians justified and where are they fully overblown, hyperbolic, strategic and articulated in bad faith?'

Professor Bushel also summed up the best approach citizens can take.

'Avoid demonising others even if you might dislike what they do or say - criticise them but do not portray them as an existential threat. 

'Embrace complexity and be willing to engage and learn.'