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How an open convention works... and how it could backfire and cost Kamala Harris and the Democrats the 2024 election
President Joe Biden dropped out of the presidential race on Sunday paving the way for Democrats to choose a new presidential nominee. The president immediately endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris in the 2024 race, but she does not have it completely locked up yet.
Harris confirmed she will seek the Democratic presidential nomination soon after the president's bombshell announcement.
A growing number of Democratic leaders including some prominent lawmakers, governors and party heavyweights immediately moved to back the vice president in her bid for the White House.
She is looking to shore up support ahead of Democrats heading to Chicago for the Democratic National Convention next month. The convention kicks off August 19.
The Tennessee delegation unanimously decided it will back Harris, a source confirmed to DailyMail.com on Sunday.
The South Carolina, North Carolina and New Hampshire delegations also announced unanimous support of the vice president. Other delegations are expected to soon make decisions.
President Biden announced he is backing Vice President Kamala Harris as the Democratic presidential nominee. Several other prominent Democrats have also backed her but she has not locked up the nomination yet
But some Democratic lawmakers have said they are waiting to see how the process plays out and have not moved to back Harris just yet. Former President Obama was among those who did not signal support as of Sunday.
Meanwhile, Senator Joe Manchin is considering re-registering in the Democratic party and running for the nomination.
The uncertainty after Biden's announcement just over 100 days before Election Day means Democrats could have a brokered convention for the first time in more than 70 years and opens the door to a wild and a potentially exhausting nominating process next month at the convention with voting until a nominee is chosen by a majority of eligible voting delegates.
A brokered convention is a presidential nominating convention where delegates fail to nominate a candidate on the first ballot. It means no candidate gets the votes of more than half of delegates in the first round.
Biden speaking nearly four years ago on the fourth day of the Democratic National Convention in 2020 in Wilmington, DE
Once upon a time, brokered conventions happened regularly because the major parties did not hold primaries to award delegates the way they currently do.
It lead to a series of complex negotiations playing out among some party power brokers, typically federal and state leaders including party officials, lawmakers and governors.
The voting continues on a round of ballots until a candidate receives a majority of delegates.
The last time there was a brokered convention was in 1952.
Then Illinois Governor Adlai Stevenson and Sen. John Sparkman at the Democratic National Convention in Chicago in 1952, the last time there was a brokered convention
Stevenson secured the Democratic party nomination in 1952 on the third ballot at the Democratic National Convention in Chicago
In the end, Democrats were able to nominate Democrat Adlai Stevenson on the third ballot. Republican Dwight D. Eisenhower that year was just nine votes short on the first ballot, prompting some delegates to change their votes to make him the official nominee.
The longest brokered convention to date took place 100 years ago in 1924 when Democrats took sixteen days and 103 ballots to nominate diplomat John Davis. It took Franklin Delano Roosevelt four ballots to secure the 1932 Democratic nomination.
'We really don't have any standards or benchmarks or known procedures,' said Leonard Steinhorn, professor at American University, of what a brokered convention would look like in 2024. 'We're sort of walking a little bit in the wild right now,' he said.
While the terms brokered convention and contested convention are often used interchangeably, there is a key difference.
A contested convention is one where the one candidate has done well but not enough to guarantee nomination on the first ballot, so another candidate tries to convince delegates to abandon the frontrunner.
It has been more common in the modern era than a brokered convention, according to Elaine Kamarck from the Brookings Institute.
With Biden in the race, the convention is more of a public relations event for the party and president because the nominee is already determined, and in this current case well known incumbent president.
But if Biden were to exit the race before the convention, there is not a clear frontrunner, unless the president moves to pass the baton and makes an endorsement.
Political parties have largely tried to avoid both brokered and contested conventions because history shows candidates who need multiple ballots to be nominated are less likely to win the White House.
It is a pressing concern as Democrats ponder the best candidate to take on Trump this fall and is partially why a number of Democrats have already coalesced behind Harris and are trying to show unity.
Of the sixty Democratic and Republican nominating conventions from 1868 after the Civil War through 1984, eighteen candidates were nominated on multiple ballots according to Pew.
Of those, only seven were elected president, and among those, four were running against other nominees who also faced multiple ballots to receive the nomination.
The last time a Democrat vigorously argued for an open convention was late Senator Ted Kennedy in 1980. The senator challenged President Jimmy Carter for the nomination. Ultimately, delegates had to stay faithful based on their state results when voting. But Carter went on to lose the election that fall to Ronald Reagan.
Before that, Republican President Gerald Ford went into the 1976 convention with a clear majority of delegates but not a necessary number to lock up the nomination leading to a serious challenge from then-Governor Reagan. He ended up winning on the first ballot but went on to lose the election to Carter.
'You want a party united behind the person who seems to be the popular choice of the members of that party, of the voters,' Steinhorn noted.
Determining the candidate at the convention would force the party and campaign to scramble to introduce the nominee to the public, raise money and hit the campaign trail before Election Day.
Former President Donald Trump and wife Melania with his running mate J.D. Vance and wife Usha at the Republican National Convention on July 18
What could benefit Democrats if they were to face a brokered convention in 2024 is whoever their nominee is, the opponent is Trump.
'This is going to be an unusual year because Donald Trump has very, very high negatives,' said Steinhorn.
While Democrats would be playing catchup for November in their messaging and ground game, there could be a key difference.
'Because Donald Trump is so singularly unpopular as the opposing party nominee, it potentially does give the Democratic Party is small advantage,' he added.