Swing voters in tiny bellwether county that picked the last four presidents reveal what they really think of Kamala Harris and Donald Trump - and the surprising factor that'll make all the difference

Erie County in the northwest corner of Pennsylvania has been through a lot.

Vacant factories dot its shoreline along Lake Erie. Buildings lie half-derelict, their paint flaking. Homes stand empty.

It is typical Rust Belt America.

When the last remnants of the once-bustling steel industry died away here in the 2000s, so did most of the jobs.

The median household income is $43,135, that's $15,000 below the state average.

No doubt, the county has seen better days, but that's turning around.

There's a new energy — health care, tech and tourism jobs are springing up, along with outdoor concerts and a national park buzzing with visitors.

Erie County in the northwest corner of Pennsylvania has been through a lot. Vacant factories dot its shoreline along Lake Erie. Buildings lie half-derelict, their paint flaking. Homes stand empty.

What's more, the tough, optimistic folks here may now hold the key to the White House.

Only six of 67 counties in Pennsylvania flipped from voting Republican for president in 2016 to Democrat in 2020.

Erie is one of them – and it's something of a bellwether.

'Erie County has voted with the winner in 25 of the last 28 statewide elections, making it one of the "swingiest" swing counties in the United States,' said Dr. Joe Morris, chair of the political science department at Mercyhurst University, which is based in Erie.

As for the general election, voters here have successfully backed the presidential winners in the last four cycles.

So, on behalf of DailyMail.com, I came to Erie to speak to undecided voters who may make the difference this November.

Eighty percent of the county's voters are white, most are working-class.

I sat down with a dozen of them for one-to-one, hour-long interviews to understand where they stand 88 days out from the election.

Here's what Iearned...

ERIE COUNTY MAY 'SWING' AGAIN

I met Michael in a Tim Hortons restaurant.

The delivery truck he drives for a vending company was parked outside.

Fifty years old, white and sporting a long salt-and-pepper beard, he voted for Barack Obama twice, then Trump in 2016, and then Biden in 2020.

He is emblematic of this swing county.

After Biden's disastrous CNN debate in June, Michael was troubled by reports of Biden's 'memory issues.'

His mother recently passed away after being diagnosed with dementia and he doesn't believe that someone suffering from age-related issues should serve as president.

Fifty years old, white and sporting a long salt-and-pepper beard, he voted for President Barack Obama twice, then Trump in 2016, and Biden in 2020. Michael (above) is emblematic of this swing county.

Now that Biden has stepped aside, he's leaning toward Kamala Harris.

'She seems to carry herself well [and look] presidential,' he told me.

Though his mind is far from made up.

Michael has been bothered by the Democrats' handling of the war in Ukraine – and he appears open to Trump's rhetoric suggesting a stingier approach to doling out American aid and support.

Dakota, a 32-year-old mental health nurse, who I interviewed in a busy public library, was also worried about foreign wars.

He thinks America is 'over-exposed, extended' in the Middle East, and too involved in the Russia/Ukraine war.

Both of them also think Harris is lacking something.

'I don't get Michelle Obama-style vibes from her, who I think was probably one of the classiest first ladies we've ever had,' Michael said.

It's a theme that I heard over and over again, as I spoke to Erie County's undecided voters.

Many seem open to a Harris presidency, but they're not yet sold.

It's a blinking red warning sign for Trump, as well as an opportunity.

'KAMALA'S NO OBAMA'

Tina and Gordon are husband and wife — and motorcycle enthusiasts.

We sat down together at a gas station café.

Tina is white, 42 years old and a former bartender who assures me that her 'crazy days' are over.

She is still a character. Her email address begins with the phrase 'SaltyAsFack.'

Today, she manages construction sites.

Her husband Gordon, 54 and white, worked in Pennsylvania steelworks in the '90s, served in the 82nd airborne and spent some time in prison.

Now, he's out of work.

He is also a mountain of a man who once weighed more than Arnold Schwarzenegger.

While Biden was still in the presidential race, they were thinking of voting for Trump or the independent candidate RFK Jr.

Tina (left) and Gordon (right) are husband and wife — and motorcycle enthusiasts.

Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump speaks during a campaign rally in Erie, Pennsylvania on July 29, 2023

To them, Biden was simply too old to serve another four years.

Now, they're considering Harris, but not enthusiastic about it.

'Look, Kamala is no [Barack] Obama,' Tina told me. 'But she's probably a good fit. I'm not super excited about her.'

Gordon paused. 'Yeah. She's alright.'

For them, Harris's record is the problem.

Tina said she's 'heard bad things' especially 'about the border.'

'[The illegal immigration crisis] was her major task… We need someone who can get stuff done,' she told me.

Her concerns about Trump are nearly the exact opposite.

She likes what he has to say about fixing immigration and feels that he's striking a moderate position on abortion. But for these two bikers, Trump's behavior is just too much.

For example, at last week's National Association of Black Journalists convention in Chicago, Trump bizarrely questioned Harris's racial identity.

'I didn't know [Harris] was Black until a number of years ago when she happened to turn Black and now she wants to be known as Black,' Trump said. 'I don't know, is she Indian or is she Black?'

Tina and Gordon don't call Trump a racist – but the moment reminded them of his divisiveness.

For them, Harris' record is the problem. Tina said she's 'heard bad things' especially 'about the border.'

'I think it's childish... Why aren't you talking about her agenda?' said Tina. 'I don't like the bashing.'

Michael, the delivery truck driver from the Tim Horton's, shared that perspective.

'That's not presidential. It's schoolyard bullying. I think he came across tactless… just tasteless.'

On the issues, Trump seems to have an edge with undecideds in Erie Country.

On personality, they lean toward Harris.

That became even more clear when I spoke to Francis, 73, and Chris, 53.

CULTURE WARS

Chris lives in a trailer park, drives a delivery truck and spends his downtime on the front porch with his wife and dog.

He backed Obama in 2012, Trump in 2016, went for the third-party candidate in 2020 – and he's leaning for RFK Jr in November.

Why? Again, it's Trump's manner.

'Trump's not racist but he's a mobster. He's always running his mouth. He just says whatever's at the top of his head.'

RFK Jr is the only option for Chris because Harris's embrace of 'woke' issues has ruled her out for him.

'She cares about black rights, women's rights, every kind of right except mine,' he said.

Air Force veteran Francis welcomed me into his basement flat - sparsely decorated with a cross on his wall.

Chris backed Obama in 2012, Trump in 2016, went for the third-party candidate in 2020 – and he's leaning for RFK Jr in November.

He's also put off by the former president's behavior, but he's voting for him anyway.

Francis backed Trump in 2016 and 2020 and is outraged over the Democrat's 'extreme' positions on abortion and gender issues.

'I'm a Catholic. I do believe abortion is murder,' he said.

Francis is also worried by the left's embrace of policies that appear to encourage gender transitions.

Conrad, 32, is an insurance underwriter who used to be a nurse.

He voted for Mitt Romney in 2012, didn't vote in 2016 (but was open to giving Trump a hearing) and opted for Biden in 2020.

Conrad worries Harris may jack up his taxes, which is a considerable concerns snce he hops to soon start a family with his wife.

On the issue of abortion, he's angry and a bit confused.

Even though the issue is not on the ballot in Pennsylvania, where abortion laws are fairly lenient, he's outraged over restrictions in states governed by Republicans: 'My wife can get raped, and she will be forced to carry a child? What the f***?'

Then he paused. He also worries about what he sees as Harris's lack of clarity on how late she would allow women to terminate pregnancies.

I closed each interview with a question: Are you optimistic or pessimistic about the future of America?

Francis backed Trump in 2016 and 2020 and is outraged over the Democrat's 'extreme' positions on abortion and gender issues.

Conrad, 32, is an insurance underwriter who used to be a nurse. He voted for Mitt Romney in 2012, didn't vote in 2016 (but was open to giving Trump a hearing) and opted for Biden in 2020.

Everyone said optimistic, then qualified their answers.

The country, like the city, feels 'on the cusp' and all were concerned about the prospect of political violence.

There is palpable hope and anxiety in Erie County – and there's no doubt that Biden's defenestration as Democratic nominee has blown the race here wide open.

But Harris needs to do more to win people over... and Trump needs to tone things down.

I leave the last word to Conrad.

'Harris just has to be, for lack of a better word, normal. And then I think she wins.'

If recent history is our guide, where Erie goes, so goes the country.