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Republican pollster claims Trump is 'destroying his re-election chance' - as he reveals how the ex-president can get his campaign back on track
A veteran Republican pollster has warned that Donald Trump is 'destroying his re-election chance' after the ex-president fell behind Kamala Harris in recent polls.
Frank Luntz, dubbed 'the Nostradamus of pollsters', said last week that Harris is slightly favored to win - and now he has revealed why he believes Trump is flagging: 'The campaign is disciplined; their candidate is not.'
'[Trump] is single-handedly destroying his chance for re-election. This is the weakest Democratic nominee in terms of record in a long time but his insistence on making the attacks personal and vicious are blunting their impact and, in fact, backfiring on him,' Luntz told The Guardian.
It comes amid reports that Trump's recent broadsides, including claims Harris 'happened to turn black', have spooked donors. The vice president, on the other hand, is enjoying a honeymoon period with the liberal media falling over themselves to promote her campaign and pollsters tipping her to take the White House.
Luntz says that Trump can regain the momentum by focusing on two key issues: the border crisis, which Harris disastrously presided over, and the flailing economy.
'Right now I think Trump's gonna lose because he's incapable of sticking to a message about inflation or immigration,' Luntz said.
Longtime Republican pollster Frank Luntz has harsh words for Donald Trump , saying the former president is 'destroying his re-election chance'
Luntz (pictured), who has been called 'The Nostradamus of pollsters,' said earlier this week that Kamala Harris is now slightly favored to win and recent polls appear to agree
Trump was the red-hot favorite last month when he triumphantly appeared at the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee after being shot in an assassination attempt in Butler, Pennsylvania.
But after Harris took over from Biden, the liberal media has gone full-swing behind her campaign and she has seized momentum. The latest polling average from Real Clear Politics shows that Harris has a half-point lead over Trump. In the betting averages that lead is higher at 5.8 percentage points.
In one recent example, Harris was more trusted on the economy than Trump - marking a big shift in voter sentiment following Biden's decision to drop out.
The survey, for the Financial Times and the Ross School of Business, found that Harris had a 1-point advantage. It is the first time a Democrat presidential candidate has led Trump on the economy since the poll started tracking voter sentiment on the issue almost a year ago.
Another poll by New York Times / Siena College last week found that Harris has moved ahead in the key battleground states of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Among likely voters in each state, 50 percent said they would likely vote for Harris while 46 for Trump.
Donors are worried about Trump's recent strategy, according to The New York Times.
At an August 2 dinner in The Hamptons, Trump's big backers hoped he would 'signal that he was recalibrating after a series of damaging mistakes.'
But he discussed his 'stop the steal' claims about the election being rigged in 2020 which advisers have reportedly told him to drop.
The former president last night risked sparking further concern by falsely claiming that his Democratic opponent had doctored an image of the crowd at her rally last week in Detroit.
Republican sources told Axios over the weekend that the former president is 'struggling to get past his anger.'
The Trump campaign has considered many options to boost the president's efforts, including the return of iconic campaign manager Kellyanne Conway, with the backing of both Melania and Lara Trump.
Trump's daughter-in-law - who is also co-chair of the RNC - had a meeting last weekend where she described the race between him and Harris as a coin toss.
Lara Trump reportedly 'laid out the cold hard facts' to Donald just one day after the ex-president had a reunion with Conway, 57.
Trump's advisors have asked the former president to be 'hard-hitting' on Kamala Harris, defining her as liberal and weak
The Trump campaign has considered many options to boost the president's efforts, including the return of iconic campaign manager Kellyanne Conway, with the backing of both Melania and Lara Trump
The first woman to ever manage a presidential campaign to victory, Conway was one of Trump's fiercest advocates on the trail and in the White House before she left in August 2020.
The 2024 Trump campaign has suffered from a triple blow of vice presidential nominee JD Vance's poor reception from the public, Harris' 'honeymoon period' as she jumps into the race and a similar effect on her choice of running mate Tim Walz.
Now, what had appeared to be a coronation of Trump for a return to the White House over Biden has turned into a neck-and-neck race, with Harris beginning to take a lead in the polls.
However, the 'honeymoon phase' of both Harris' campaign and Walz's announcement appears to be ending with claims of 'stolen valor' over the Minnesota governor's military service.
Biden himself finally admitted Sunday that he dropped out of the race because the polling between himself and Trump was so dire that it threatened to wipe out Democrats up and down the ticket.
'A number of my Democratic colleagues in the House and Senate thought that I was going to hurt them in the races,' Biden said in his first interview since ending his reelection campaign.
Joe Biden opened up about dropping out of the race in his first interview since ending his reelection bid with CBS Sunday Morning
Former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi was among those building pressure on Biden to step aside – and Biden said he became more and more worried his continued candidacy would affect congressional races in the fall
'And I was concerned if I stayed in the race, that would be the topic — you'd be interviewing me about why did Nancy Pelosi say [something] … and I thought it'd be a real distraction,' he said in the interview with CBS News Sunday Morning host Robert Costa.
Luntz said earlier this week he would advise Trump to talk about the border, immigration, and the economy while Harris should focus on her vision for the country to get back in the lead.
Trump, as of late, has been focused on personal attacks on Harris, offering two new nicknames in the past week - 'Kamabla' and 'Kamala Crash.' He's also questioned whether the first black president, is actually black. Harris has a black father and Indian mother.
Harris, for her part, has mocked Trump for his statements and focused on his personal failings, including his recent conviction in New York tied to a hush money payment to porn star Stormy Daniels.
'I think both campaigns are miscalibrated right now and are not understanding the electorate. And so this election, quite frankly, frankly, is up for grabs,' Luntz said.
In the end, no matter who voters pick, Luntz predicted the winner of the White House will not be known until long past November's election night.
'We will not know on election night,' he said. 'In fact, let me go further. I don't think we're going to know when the morning shows come on the next morning, because I do believe that is going to be incredibly close.'
Harris entered the race on July 21 when President Joe Biden, 81, folded his campaign and endorsed Harris following a disastrous debate performance on June 27 against Trump.
Republican presidential candidate former President Donald Trump speaks during a press conference at his Mar-a-Lago estate
Online betting odds have now turned in Harris' favor, with Trump's odds greatly slashed
She is now set to debate Trump on September 10 on ABC, setting up the first face-to-face match-up between the rivals in what polls show is a close race.
In a news conference at his Palm Beach, Florida, residence, Trump said he wanted additional debates on September 4 and September 25 that would air on Fox and NBC.
Echoing a recent attack line from his campaign, Trump criticized Harris for not doing a press interview since launching her campaign.
'She can't do an interview. She's barely competent,' Trump said, later again calling her 'nasty,' a go-to line that he often uses to disparage female critics.
Trump has conducted a steady stream of media interviews, though they are usually with friendly, right-leaning outlets and reporters. On Wednesday, he called into the 'Fox & Friends' morning program and took questions from the program's hosts.
Trump announced the Palm Beach news conference on Thursday morning on his social media platform. Only a select group of reporters were given the advance notice needed to travel to his Florida resort in time. Reuters was not extended an invitation.
Harris answered a handful of questions from reporters after meeting with auto workers in Wayne, Michigan, on Thursday, following the United Auto Workers union's endorsement of her candidacy. She said she wants to schedule a sit-down interview 'before the end of the month.'