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Ukrainian troops seize more land in a week than Putin's Russian invaders have in eight months - as a humiliated Putin scrambles to rebuff Zelensky's offensive in Kursk
Ukrainian troops have now seized more land in one week than Russia managed in eight months, according to figures shared by Kyiv's top general.
Kyiv claims to have snatched 1,000sq-km, or 386sq-miles, from Russia after taking responsibility for a shock cross-border incursion into Kursk, ongoing since last Tuesday.
The foray east, initially with a contingent of around 1,000 Ukrainian soldiers and several vehicles, has driven out overstretched 'conscripts and irregular forces' and displaced tens of thousands of people in the biggest Ukrainian attack of the war.
Six days in, Russian forces are still scrambling to reallocate resources to broken lines and halt the Ukrainian advance. In that time, Ukraine claims it has gained control of 28 villages in Kursk - and more land in total than Russia has claimed since December.
During that time, Kyiv estimates that Moscow has lost around 300,000 troops, either killed or wounded in attempts to break the deadlock in Ukraine.
Ukrainian servicemen operate a Soviet-made T-72 tank in the Sumy region, near the border with Russia, on August 12, 2024, amid the Russian invasion of Ukraine
Ukrainian servicemen operate an armoured military vehicle in the Sumy region, near the border with Russia, on August 12, 2024
This photograph shows a road sign showing the distance to the Russian town of Kursk next to the destroyed border crossing point with Russia, in the Sumy region, on August 13, 2024
Putin has lost more land in six days than his forces gained in eight months, analysis suggests
Pro-Kyiv forces stormed into the region of Kursk, sharing a border with Ukraine, with around 1,000 troops and more than two dozen armoured vehicles and tanks last Tuesday, according to the Russian army.
Meanwhile, Moscow has hit back with air strikes and drones in a desperate bid to halt their advance.
On Monday, Vladimir Putin ordered his generals to ‘kick the enemy out of our territory’ as thousands of civilians fled. He said: ‘One of the obvious goals of the enemy is to sow discord and destroy the unity and cohesion of Russian society.’
Artillery strikes were also launched against targets in northern Ukraine to prevent further deployments after Russia was humiliated by the incursion into the Kursk region.
Putin has appointed his former bodyguard Alexei Dyumin, who once single-handedly scared off a bear from the president’s mountain residence, to lead the charge.
The Institute for the Study of War, a Washington-based think tank, suggested the lines were taken by surprise, with hardened soldiers deployed elsewhere in Ukraine.
In Kursk, the defenders appeared to be 'conscripts and irregular forces', largely caught off guard.
'The lack of a coherent Russian response to the Ukrainian incursion into Kursk... and the reported rate of Ukrainian advance indicates that Ukrainian forces were able to achieve operational surprise,' the Washington-based ISW said late Thursday.
'The Russian military command may currently be resisting operational pressures to redeploy forces from other operational directions to prevent the Ukrainian incursion from disrupting Russian offensive operations in eastern Ukraine,' it assessed.
Russia had attempted to save face when Valery Gerasimov, Chief of the General Staff, claimed the invasion had been stopped two days in - after reportedly dismissing intelligence briefs about a build-up of Ukrainian troops on his border.
But by Saturday, Russian officials were forced to evacuate some 76,000 residents from the region as Ukraine pushed deeper into the region.
On Sunday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy finally acknowledged his troops were behind the assault.
Ukraine has sought to make the most of its momentum with a second cross-border offensive into the border region of Belgorod, forcing more evacuations.
Shock tactics have now given Ukraine more land to bargain with than Russia was able to taken in more than eight months, according to analysis by The Telegraph.
Russia had leveraged its position inside Ukraine to assert that it would be willing to agree peace terms - at a territorial cost to Kyiv.
Yesterday, Ukraine offered to halt its incursion, the biggest attack by a foreign army on Russian soil since the Second World War, if Moscow agreed to a ‘just’ peace deal.
Foreign ministry spokesman Georgiy Tykhy said Kyiv was not interested in ‘taking over’ Russian territory and defended Ukraine’s actions as ‘absolutely legitimate’.
He added: ‘The sooner Russia agrees to restore a just peace, the sooner the raids by the Ukrainian defence forces into Russia will stop.’
Ukrainian servicemen ride a BMP-1 infantry fighting vehicle near the border in Sumy, Ukraine
Ukrainian servicemen ride a military vehicle near the border with Russia on Saturday
A jet flies overhead during the Ukrainian assault into the Kursk region of Russia last week
A Ukrainian military vehicle drives from the direction of the border with Russia carrying blindfolded men in Russian military uniforms, in the Sumy region, on August 13
A military vehicle driving past a destroyed Ukrainian military vehicle in the Sumy region, near the border with Russia, on August 13
Well-placed sources suggested in May that Moscow would be willing to consider a deal that would freeze the then-current occupation of about a fifth of Ukraine.
These battle lines were the result of more than two years of direct conflict, with both sides largely held to a dire state of attritional warfare.
Indeed, Moscow has not been able to capture a 1,000sq-km swath of land in any month since December 2023.
The 994sq-km recorded by The Telegraph has come at the cost of nearly a third of a million troops.
The financial cost of the war is kept secret, though its overall defence spending commitment for 2024 is set to be around £87bn.
In February, the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) estimated Russia was spending about a third of its budget on defence in total and had enough weapons and troops to sustain the effort for another two-to-three years.
Russia responded that month with advances in Avdiivka, a city in the western Donetsk oblast.
Ukraine suffered as a long-awaited aid-package was held up in US Congress.
In May, then-Foreign Secretary Lord Cameron lifted a previous restriction on British rockets only striking enemy targets within Ukraine, clearing the way for Kyiv to take the fight to Russia.
French President Emmanuel Macron even entertained the possibility of sending French troops to Ukraine to help defend the country if needed.
Russia responded with fierce threats against Ukraine's foreign backers, and reopened its offensive in Kharkiv, in the north, in May.
The assault was Russia's biggest gain in 17 months, the Telegraph reports, swallowing up 250sq-km.
Russian troops made it six miles before Ukraine stabilised the situation.
And in consequence, the attack invited the US to concede the restrictions it had placed on only using its supplied weapons on Russian targets within Ukraine.
'The hallmark of our engagement has been to adapt and adjust as necessary, to meet what's actually going on on the battlefield, to make sure that Ukraine has what it needs, when it needs it,' US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said at the time.
Soon followed Ukrainian attacks with foreign missiles over the border, drawing outrage from Putin and his cronies.
Ukraine's gains in Kursk shift the balance of play. While Russia was making limited progress in Ukraine, it always held the leverage of land in negotiations.
Now, Ukraine has a significant grip on Russian territory - and has reassured its foreign backers it is still very much in the fight.
While Chechen forces claimed Russia had started to reclaim some land today, more than 120,000 Russian citizens have now been forced to flee their homes since last Tuesday, while 12 civilians are said to have died in the incursion.
The videos of locals appealing to Putin for help amid the chaos only deepens the humiliation of Russia's disorderly response to the incursion.
A Kremlin official told Russian outlet Politika.Kozlov last week it had been a 'slap in the face for the president' as Russia had been 'unable to push the enemy back'.
'Russia must be forced into peace if Putin wants to continue waging war so badly... This always happens to those who despise people and any rules - Russia brought war to others, and now it is coming home,' Zelensky said stoically in his latest address
Russia has seen previous small-scale incursions into its territory since it invaded Ukraine in February 2022, but the foray into the Kursk region marked the largest attack on Russian soil since World War II.
It was also the first time the Ukrainian army proper had spearheaded an incursion, rather than pro-Ukraine Russian fighters that had defected - and the first offensive in Russia to be acknowledged by Zelensky.
Matthew Savill, the Director of Military Sciences at the RUSI think tank, told MailOnline there could be as many as 10,000 Ukrainian troops now in Russia.
'There's evidence of Ukrainian forces from at least four different brigades - 22nd and 88th Mechanised and 80th and 82nd Air Assault, and possibly more - now involved in the offensive in Kursk.
'These brigades are using Western-provided equipment like infantry fighting vehicles as well as Soviet-era tanks.
'It's hard to judge numbers, but it might be enough for around a division - perhaps 10,000 - given the spread of fighting now underway.
'But we should be very cautious about determining exact size, because units are being rotated, and the presence of elements doesn't tell us the whole unit has been deployed.
'That ambiguity suits the Ukrainians.'
Savill did however challenge the assertion that Ukraine had seized up to 1,000 square kilometres of Russian territory.
'The total area covered by the incursion appears to be around 400 square kilometres, but we don't know what is controlled within this,' he said.
Dara Massicot, an analyst at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, added that the Ukrainian breakthrough was so effective because it exploited key gaps between various Russian commands in Kursk: border guards, Ministry of Defence forces and Chechen units that have been fighting on Russia's side in the war.
This photograph shows 'dragon's teeth' and other fortifications at the destroyed border crossing point with Russia, in the Sumy region, amid the Russian invasion of Ukraine
Ukrainian servicemen wait in a military vehicle to head for a combat mission, in the Sumy region, near the border with Russia, on August 13, 2024
Ukrainian soldier stands guard as he surveys a line of Russian POWs taken in Kursk
A Ukrainian soldier raises a Ukrainian flag in Guevo, Kursk Oblast, Russia released August 11, 2024 in this still image obtained from a social media video
What does Ukraine hope to achieve by invading Russia?
Most experts agree that Ukraine's incursion into Russia is a two-pronged tactic designed primarily to signal to its Western partners that its military is still a capable fighting force, while also seeking to put Kyiv in a more favourable bargaining position in the event of ceasefire talks ahead of the US presidential election in November.
That analysis was supported by a statement from a Ukrainian foreign ministry spokesperson, who today told reporters in Kyiv: 'The sooner Russia agrees to restore a just peace, the sooner Ukrainian raids on Russian territory will stop.'
The spokesperson did however add that: 'As long as Putin continues the war, he will receive such responses from Ukraine,' suggesting Kyiv could seek to extend the offensive indefinitely.
Tykhyi also said that Russia had launched more than 2,000 strikes from the Kursk region in recent months using anti-aircraft missiles, barrel artillery, mortars, drones, 255 glide bombs and more than 100 missiles, and explained that 'the purpose of this operation is to preserve the lives of our children, to protect the territory of Ukraine from Russian strikes'.
Meanwhile, Ukrainian soldiers told reporters this week that the offensive could help to draw Russian resources away from other key battles on Ukrainian soil, giving defenders time to regroup, re-equip and hopefully regain the initiative after months of grinding, bloody conflict.
Retired US Army Brigadier General and former US Defence Attaché in Moscow Kevin Ryan said: 'Zelensky's goals with the incursion into Russian territory are becoming clearer with time.
'It appears that the attacking force, which is composed of some of Ukraine's best units, is intent on achieving real military objectives and possibly holding some of the ground they take...
'(Russian reports claim) Ukrainian forces are digging in along parts of the new front. This would indicate an intent to hold the territory that Ukraine has seized in the Kursk/Belgorod region.'
Jacob Parakilas, research leader for Defence Strategy, Policy and Capabilities at the thinktank RAND Europe, said: 'The Ukrainians have been understandably cagey about what their intended goals are, but there are a few things they could be seeking to simultaneously accomplish.
'Pushing into Russian territory upsets the narrative that Ukraine is on the defensive and embarrasses Putin.
'On a more tactical level, it forces Russia to divert its own forces towards territorial defence rather than offence – although thus far it seems as though Russian forces are continuing to push forward on Ukrainian territory.
'There are various pieces of strategic infrastructure that Ukraine might be seeking to capture or disable, notably the gas transfer station in Sudzha.'
This photograph shows the destroyed border crossing point with Russia, in the Sumy region, on August 13, 2024, amid the Russian invasion of Ukraine
Ukrainian servicemen operate an armoured military vehicle in the Sumy region, near the border with Russia, on August 12, 2024, amid the Russian invasion of Ukraine
Russia last week suffered one of its most crushing blows of the war as hundreds of troops were reportedly killed when a military convoy was hit by Ukrainian HIMARS missiles in Kursk
A man reacts while standing next to burnt-out remains of cars in the courtyard of a multi-storey residential building, which according to local authorities was hit by debris from a destroyed Ukrainian missile, in the course of Russia-Ukraine conflict in Kursk, Russia August 11, 2024
RUSI's Savill agreed with the above comments but posited the offensive could have some additional aims not yet revealed by Ukrainian officials.
'It's also about boosting Ukrainian morale after months on the defensive. This seems to be the case in the north - though could easily turn if they take losses which are hard to replace.
'It could also be a diversion, or linked to other, undeclared operations; for example, an advance that threatens the supply lines for Russian troops that crossed the border near Kharkiv, and intends to cause the collapse of those pockets of Russian forces over the border.
'This is a risky operation... but the Ukrainians have shown themselves to be resourceful. They appear to have some air defences with them and have successfully used drones to attack Russian helicopters in the air.
'Moreover, the Russians have been severely embarrassed and the loss of territory and evacuation of civilians will play poorly back in Russia as evidence they ''can't defend themselves'' - especially alongside continued Ukrainian drone attacks as deep strikes.'
How is Russia responding?
Vladimir Putin on Monday lambasted the incursion as the Western plot in its war with Russia, using Ukrainian soldiers to do their dirty work.
'It is now clear why the Kyiv regime refused our proposals to return to a peaceful settlement plan,' he declared.
'To all appearances, the enemy, with the help of its Western masters, is doing their will. By the hands of the Ukrainians, the West is at war with us.
'But what kind of negotiations can we even talk about with people who indiscriminately strike at civilians, at civilian infrastructure, or try to create threats to nuclear power facilities?' he asked - comments that will undoubtedly be ridiculed in Kyiv and the West given the scale of the destruction wrought by Russian missiles, drones and soldiers in towns and cities across Ukraine.
RUSI's Savill said: 'The Russians seem to have been caught by surprise, or at least not prepared.
'Their initial force of border guards and FSB seems to have been overwhelmed, early public messages that the attack had been ''repulsed'' have been deleted, and a state of emergency has been announced in several oblasts,' he said, adding that tens of thousands of civilians were evacuated with tens of thousands more choosing to flee.
He added: 'Over the weekend, it seems like more Russian forces, including some pulled from inside Ukraine, have started arriving and may have now halted further Ukrainian advances, but it's not been a particularly impressive response yet.'
A slew of video footage published late last week showed how homes in various settlements had come under attack from Ukrainian drones and artillery fire, while various Russian warbloggers said hundreds of their troops had perished in a brutal HIMARS strike on a convoy in the Rylsky district of Kursk.
Seeking to blame the incursion on Ukraine's allies in the West, the humiliated Russian President cursed Kyiv's troops for refusing to 'return to a peaceful settlement plan' before ironically condemning them for 'intimidating Russian society' and 'targeting civilians'
This photo taken from video released by Russian Defence Ministry press service on Monday, Aug. 12, 2024, shows Russian military vehicle boarding a lowboy for transfer to Kursk region
Ukrainian servicemen drive Soviet-made T-64 tanks in the Sumy region, near the border with Russia, on August 11, 2024
People evacuated from a fighting between Russian and Ukrainian forces queue to receive humanitarian aid at a distribution centre in Kursk, Russia, Monday, Aug. 12, 2024
Russian forces launch an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) attack, targeting the tank of Ukrainian Armed Forces at the border area near Kursk Oblast, Russia on August 12, 2024
As of this morning, however, Moscow's forces appear to have begun mounting a more robust defence of their territory.
Army units, fresh reserves, army aircraft, drone teams and artillery forces have now been funnelled into the conflict to stop Ukrainian armoured mobile groups from moving deeper into Russia.
A Russian defence ministry statement issued today said that those units had managed to halt the Ukrainian offensive near the Kursk settlements of Obshchy Kolodez, Snagost, Kauchuk and Alexeyevsky - though those reports are yet to be corroborated.
It remains to be seen just how many troops and resources the Kremlin's military chiefs are willing to throw in to defend and retake land in Kursk.
How long could Ukraine's offensive in Russia last?
Russian military blogger Vladislav Shurygin last week encapsulated the efficacy of Ukraine's surprise offensive in a lengthy observation.
He wrote that Ukraine had 'very skilfully and accurately chosen a different strategy - taking advantage of the bureaucratic rigidity and sluggishness of the Russian management system, to exhaust Russia with continuous unexpected strikes on sensitive infrastructure and the civilian population, provoking discontent, disappointment and apathy.'
But analysts are split on whether the offensive will endure, with many warning the Ukrainians would be sorely outmatched once Russia's disorganised military command is able to mobilise the requisite resources.
Brig. Gen. Ryan said: 'If, in going to the defence Ukraine can turn this part of the front on Russian soil into the same kind of positional war that has evolved along the rest of the front in eastern Ukraine, Kyiv's forces could hold this ground for weeks or even months.'
Other experts added that Russia could feasibly repel the invasion in short order, but stressed they would likely need to withdraw troops from frontline positions in Ukraine to do so.
RUSI's Savill was more sceptical that Ukraine could - or would even want to - maintain their offensive over the long term.
'Much will depend on the ambition around any consolidation and whether this is intended to play into negotiations - and therefore how long they try to hold on,' he said.
'While the Ukrainians have reversed the public narrative about being on the defensive, it seems unlikely they would want to sustain a large incursion for months; they will have a decision to make about the best time to trade in the ground they have captured, and to what end...
'Media reporting over the weekend suggested that the Ukrainians had deployed some of their most effective mechanised units, and pulled troops from the east because they were at a higher level of readiness. That could result in a short-term gain, for long-term disadvantage.'
RAND Europe's Parakilas concluded that the long-term success of Kyiv's offensive in Kursk is largely dependent on Russia's willingness to sacrifice its gains in eastern Ukraine, particularly as summer rapidly gives way to autumn with cold conditions around the corner.
'The extent to which the Ukrainian offensive in Kursk will last depends heavily on the forces that Russia is willing to commit to retaking its own territory.
'Thus far it seems as though the bulk of the forces that have been engaging Ukrainian troops on Russian territory have been reserve and paramilitary units, which have apparently been unable to retake the territory lost to Kyiv's troops.
'If Russia is willing to pull more experienced and capable formations out of Ukraine and put them to the task, they would increase their odds of reversing the Ukrainian gains.
'But that would also force them to slow the pace of their own offensive on key strategic positions in eastern Ukraine in the key window of time remaining time before colder weather makes offensive operations more difficult.'