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Kamala Harris opens up second path to victory and could win White House by securing either the Rust Belt OR the Sun Belt - while Donald Trump would need BOTH, new polling shows
Kamala Harris has two possible paths to the White House compared to Donald Trump's one and would be the favorite to win if the election were held today, new polling suggests.
Victory in either the Rust Belt states of Michingan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania or the Sun Belt states of Georgia, Arizona and Nevada and North Carolina could see her secure the presidency, while Trump would have to win in both regions.
The prediction comes from the Washington Post's polling average, which suggests that the race has effectively reversed itself since Joe Biden was replaced by his Vice President on the Democrat ticket.
Compared to July 21 - the day President Biden dropped out of the race - Harris has gained two percentage points nationally, meaning she leads on her Republican rival as it stands.
Another recent poll by Outward Intelligence puts her even further ahead nationally - suggesting she would have a six-point edge over former President Trump in a hypothetical two-way race.
Kamala Harris has two possible paths to the White House, according to a Washington Post poll
Trump has been seething since Biden bowed out of the presidential race and passed the torch to Harris on July 21
The move towards Harris could be put down to an apparent shift among older voters from their traditional allegiance to the Republican party, according to separate analysis.
Younger voters have shifted towards Harris since Biden stepped back, with those under 30 moving towards her by nine points, according to Emerson College Polling.
But perhaps more surprisingly, older voters over 70 are supporting Harris over Trump by 51 percent to 48 percent, the poll released Thursday shows.
Despite the positive stats for the Harris campaign ahead of the Democratic National Convention next week, all eyes remain on predictions for the all-important electoral college.
According to the Washington Post's modelling, Harris still trails Trump in the electoral college tally if the election were held today and every state voted as their polling average currently suggests.
However, the newspaper's polling also suggests that Harris is more competitive in more states that could add up to 270 votes - the amount needed for an electoral college victory.
The vice president has been carried by surging enthusiasm, bolstered by new government figures this week showing inflation cooling.
More Americans now trust Harris to handle the economy than her Republican rival Donald Trump, according to a new University of Michigan poll, the first time in this election cycle that the former president has been behind on the issue.
Trump has been seething since Biden bowed out of the presidential race and passed the torch to Harris, and Republicans have been begging the former president to focus on policy and quit his personal attacks on his new opponent.
But Trump has been unable to stay on message, griping about Harris's crowd sizes, attacking her mixed race heritage and calling the former California attorney general stupid.
Former President Donald Trump at a campaign event in Asheville, NC on August 14, 2024
Poll conducted by BSG and GS Strategy Group July 26-Aug 2
In a rambling North Carolina speech meant to focus on his own economic message, Trump devoted much of his attention to personal insults and even said he was 'not sure' that the economy is the 'most important subject' in the election.
As both Trump and Harris tour the crucial swing state this week, a new poll shows the Democrat nominee leading in what has so far been an extremely tight race.
It appears to be the first polling giving the vice president a slight edge in the state that the Republican ex-president won in both 2016 and 2020.
The Cook Political Report poll showed the candidates in a statistical tie with Harris at 48 percent and Trump at 47 percent among likely voters in the Tar Heel State with less than three months to go before the election.
Other recent polling out of North Carolina showed Trump leading in the state, but multiple polls now show Harris making gains across battleground states.