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The bombshell story that hurts Kamala Harris most with swing voters and could implode her campaign - and it's not what you think
After decades in public life as a prosecutor, senator and vice president, Kamala Harris has a long track that could provide fodder for opponents.
The Trump campaign could focus on her reputation as a liberal senator, her support for the chaos of Black Lives Matter protests, or a path to citizenship for undocumented immigrants.
But the issue that could hurt her most is her support for a bail fund blamed for freeing a man who went on to commit murder, according to our exclusive poll of likely voters.
It found that 54 percent of voters said that was a problem for her. Although Republicans maxed out on the issue, it was also the most problematic for the independent voters who could decide the 2024 election, with a net negative rating of -43 (the difference between those who said it gave them a favorable opinion of her and those who said it was a negative.)
In contrast, her past support for the federal legalization of cannabis is seen as a positive among likely voters. Some 39 percent gave her a positive rating for it, compared with 27 percent who gave her a negative rating.
J.L. Partners tested a range of attack lines on 1054 likely voters to see which landed and which didn't. It reveals how the Trump campaign could best attack Harris
The results come from an online poll of 1054 likely voters conducted last week by J.L. Partners.
It tested nine attack lines that have been used bu her opponents.
And it shows where Trump could get the most leverage and where Harris may need to shore up her defenses.
'If the Trump campaign wants people to feel Harris is too liberal, or is dangerous, or is crazy, they need evidence,' said James Johnson, co-founder of J.L. Partners.
'Our poll shows that there would be worse places to look than her bail fund decision while a senator. It is real, relatable, and alarming for voters of all colors and creeds.'
The Trump campaign has already gone after Harris for being soft on crime and highlighting her support for the Minnesota Freedom Fund.
It was set up in 2016 to pay criminal bail for people who could not afford it.
Harris tweeted her support in 2020 in the wake of the police killing of George Floyd in Minneapolis, which sparked widespread protests.
'If you're able to, chip in now to the @MNFreedomFund to help post bail for those protesting on the ground in Minnesota,' she posted.
In 2022 it was used to release Shawn Tillman, who was being held on a gross misdemeanor indecent exposure charge.
Harris posted support for the bail fund in 2020 as a way of supporting protesters
Vice President Kamala Harris during an event in Raleigh, North Carolina, on Friday. She has closed the gap on Trump in our DailyMail.com poll
Workers construct a mural of Democratic presidential nominee Vice President Kamala Harris outside of the United Center on August 16, 2024 in Chicago, Illinois
Donald Trump has used Harris's support of the bail fund in attacks on her
Days after his release in May, 2022 he murdered a man in St. Paul and is now serving a life sentence.
Republican attacks have tended to skew the story, claiming sometimes that Harris had donated to the fund or that she backed a fund to free 'murderers and rapists' leaving out the fact that her support was for B.L.M. protesters.
'One of the dangerous criminals Kamala helped bail out of jail was Shawn Michael Tillman,' is how Trump himself put it during a rally in Charlotte, North Carolina, at the end of last month.
'You know that name. A repeat offender who, with Harris's help, was set free.'
Other arguments that worked well in our poll were that she was responsible for the 'causes of the border crisis.' (Again Republican attacks have glossed over the fact that President Joe Biden asked her to tackle 'root causes' of migration in a limited number of Central American countries.)
And she could be vulnerable over her past healthcare positions. In her 2020 presidential campaign, she pushed for a plan that would have eliminated private insurance plans, replacing them with a government-funded system.
J.L. Partners polled 1001 likely voters from Aug 7 to 11, in a separate survey, using a mix of online, landline, cell phone and in-app techniques. The results come with a margin of error of +/- 3.1 points. They show that Harris has closed the gap on Trump
'Did you do this for Trump?' asked Kevin Munoz of the Harris Campaign when asked for a response to the poll.
Attacks on other issues, such as backing B.L.M. protests in the summer of 2020 or advocating for path to citizenship for undocumented immigrants, land less well. Those issues have the backing of 24 percent of respondents and 30 percent respectively.
'In a political campaign you need to find the message, but also the proof point to back up the message. Without both, it won't stick for voters,' said Johnson, the pollster.
'"Crooked Hillary" worked because of her emails. Attacks on Trump for being high drama in 2020 had his aggressive debate performance and his record during COVID to back them up.
'Romney seemed out of touch not just because Obama kept saying it but also because he had his 47 percent comment to back it up.' (Romney claimed that 47 percent of the electorate would vote for Obama whatever happened because they paid no income tax—a wild statement that failed to account for the fact that most of those people earned too little to be taxed rather than enjoying a gravy train.)
Both sides, said Johnson, needed to find attack lines based on solid foundations.