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The chart that shows why RFK Jr dropping out could decide whether Trump or Harris wins the election
Robert F. Kennedy's Jr.'s voters could help Donald Trump beat Kamala Harris in November's presidential election, according to an exclusive poll for DailyMail.com.
It shows that his supporters lean towards Trump over Harris by a margin of two to one.
Although the nephew of JFK is only polling in single digits, that sort of boost could be enough to tip the balance towards Trump in a tight race that will be decided by just tens of thousands of voters in a handful of swing states.
The issue could take on fresh urgency on Friday, amid speculation that RFK Jr. is preparing to drop out.
He is scheduled to speak in Phoenix, Arizona, 'about the present historical moment and his path forward,' at 2pm Eastern time, and has already withdrawn his name from the state's ballot.
J.L. Partners conducted two surveys of more than 1000 likely voters on voting intention and political attitudes. By combining the data, it is possible to see which way RFK Jr voters lean when the choice becomes Trump or Harris, and more than half lean towards the former president. The polls were conducted from August 7 to 11
Our latest poll with J.L. Partners, conducted from August 7 to 11, found that of 1,001 likely voters only five percent would vote for Kennedy if the election were tomorrow.
He was far behind Trump on 43 percent and Harris on 41 percent.
But when that poll was combined with a second survey to ask whether they lean more to Trump or to Harris the results appear to be decisive: More than half (51 percent) said they leaned towards the former president.
About a quarter (26 percent) said they leaned more to Harris.
That could swell Trump's voter base by a point or two if Kennedy is no longer running.
'Don't buy the line that RFK Jr. only makes a small difference to the election,' said J.L. Partners cofounder James Johnson.
'This is a major third party candidate dropping out.
'And our data show that even before that, RFK Jr.'s voters were going to go to Trump by a large margin if their man wasn't in the race.'
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has officially filed paperwork withdrawing his name from the presidential race in Arizona amid rumors he will drop out of the election on Friday
Our poll shows Donald Trump will pick up more of RFK Jr's voters than Harris
The data can also be used to see what happens to people who voted Biden in 2020 but said they backed RFK Jr. now. More than a quarter say they lean towards Trump
RFK Jr., 70, an environmental lawyer with a nose for conspiracy theories and anti-vax arguments, entered the race as a Democrat.
But he switched to independent after failing to find purchase against Biden in the primary contest.
Previous J.L. Partners polls had shown he had picked up more support from the left than the right.
'The data also show there is a small but significant group of voters who opted for Biden in 2020, moved to RFK Jr, and are now leaning Trump,' said Johnson.
'These voters—who used RFK Jr as a sort of gateway drug to backing Trump—could make all the difference in states on a knife-edge, and RFK Jr's dropping out will give Trump a boost in these states.
'It is a more significant development than anything out of the DNC this week.'
Trump is on a tour of battleground states and is due to hold a rally near Phoenix soon after RFK Jr's announcement.
His campaign has teased a special guest, heightening speculation that Kennedy will endorse the former president.
During a trip to the southern border on Thursday, Trump said he was open to the possibility, calling it a 'great honor.'
He also said there might be room in his administration for RFK Jr, the son of Robert Kennedy, JFK's attorney general.
But he will face a battle to win over RFK Jr's supporters.
Harris communications director Michael Tyler told MSNBC that her campaign would welcome his voters.
'I think that him dropping out fully cements … that this election is going to be a choice between Vice President Harris, who is fighting for the American people, [and] Donald Trump, who ... is simply fighting for himself,' he said at the Democratic convention in Chicago.
Kennedy has endured a turbulent campaign. He recently admitted he dumped a dead bear cub in Manhattan's Central Park in 2014.
And he struggled with strained campaign finances and legal challenges, including a ruling in New York that he should not appear on the ballot in the state because he listed a 'sham' address on nominating petitions.