How congressional districts in Pennsylvania and Nebraska could determine the outcome of the 2024 election

After the dramatic shake up at the top of the Democratic presidential ticket, Democrats are growing more confident in their ability to hold the White House and Senate and flip the House with Kamala Harris as their presidential nominee. 

But two congressional districts could help decide the country's fate not just at the top of the ticket come November but also both chambers of Congress: Pennsylvania's eighth congressional district and Nebraska's second congressional district. 

The case for watching these two districts to know where the election is headed was first made by former New York Congressman and Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee chair Steve Israel. 

He wrote in June 'when the dust settles, the only information you will need in order to conclude who won the 2024 election will be the results of Pennsylvania’s 8th and Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District. For the next five months, they are the center of the political universe.'

The path to the White House could run through two Congressional districts, one in Pennsylvania and one in Nebraska

While the top of the Democratic presidential ticket has changed, the importance of both districts have not.

PENNSYLVANIA'S 8TH DISTRICT 

Population: 766,586

Pennsylvania's eighth Congressional district is represented by Democratic Congressman Matt Cartwright. 

He flipped the north eastern Pennsylvania district, which includes Scranton, blue in 2018 amid the Democratic wave in response to the 2016 election of Donald Trump after the district was red since the 2010 midterms. 

Since then, he has been able to hold the district in 2020 and 2022 even as Republicans were able to make some gains in the House in the last midterm. 

This fall Cartwright will face off against Republican Rob Bresnahan Jr.  Cook Political Report rates the race as a toss up.

Former President Donald Trump's campaign has signaled just how important the district is for his chances to win the battleground state. 

The ex-president held a rally in Wilkes-Barre, PA just two weeks ago as the race in the keystone state remains razor-thin. During the rally, the Republican House candidate Bresnahan also spoke.

Former President Donald Trump campaigning in Wilkes-Barre, PA on August 17, 2024. The town is part of Pennsylvania's Eighth Congressional District

The swing district is represented by Democratic Congressman Matt Cartwright but Republicans are looking to flip it with GOP candidate Rob Bresnahan Jr.

NEBRASKA'S 2ND DISTRICT 

Population: 658,116

Meanwhile, Nebraska has been a reliable red state in presidential elections since 1964, but because of the unique way it doles out Electoral College votes, it could play a significant role at the top of the ticket as well as in the House.

Nebraska is one of two states that assigns some Electoral Votes by congressional district, meaning while the majority of the votes have gone to Republicans in years past, one electoral vote from Nebraska's second congressional district went to Biden in 2020 as one also went to former President Obama in 2008. 

As both presidential nominees look for a path to 270 Electoral College votes in an extremely competitive race, that one vote from the district including Omaha could be crucial. 

Democratic vice presidential nominee Tim Walz holds a campaign event in Omaha, NE on August 17, 2024

Nebraska gives out some of its Electoral College votes by Congressional District so Democrats could pick up one vote in the district that includes Omaha even as the state goes red

The Harris campaign recently signaled as much when it dispatched Democratic Vice Presidential nominee Tim Walz to Omaha for a campaign event earlier this month.

The district is also a battleground in the House as Republicans hold a slim majority and Democrats look to flip it.

Nebraska's second congressional district is currently held by Republican Don Bacon who has managed to keep the seat since first being elected in 2016 by less than 4,000 votes over an incumbent Democrat who held the district for one term. 

Bacon will face a rematch against Democrat Tony Vargas who also ran against him in the 2022 midterms but lost by less than 6,000 votes.

Cook Political Report rates the House race as lean Republican even as Democrats set their sights on an electoral vote.