Top pollster reveals the crucial decision Kamala Harris 'blew' that could be devastating to her election hopes

Pollster Nate Silver says Vice President Kamala Harris missed a huge chance to pick up voters in the center and from a battleground state with her running mate selection.

Silver wrote on his website on Sunday that Harris 'blew one big opportunity to tack to the center with her selection of [Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz] rather than Josh Shapiro: that a tiny minority' of progressives objected to Shapiro was an argument in Shapiro’s favor, if anything'.

His assessment came in response to the New York Times/Siena poll that showed Donald Trump taking the lead over Harris nationwide and with the swing states on a knife edge.

Walz ultimately landed a spot on the ticket in the 'veepstakes' with Shapiro and Arizona Senator Mark Kelly (D).

The Minnesota Governor was seen as more progressive and a potential boost in Midwestern states.

But Silver stated that Shapiro could have been a boost for Harris.

The Pennslyvania Governor has been criticized by progressives for his stance on certain issues, including the war in Gaza.

However, Kamala has also been burdened by the more liberal positions she ran during her 2019 presidential campaign.

The NY Times/Siena poll stated half of voters think Harris is too 'liberal/progressive'.

Silver wrote:

Harris is limited by her own past progressive policy positions. So the strategic aim is probably to fight this liberal/conservative question to a draw, and then win on having considerably more favorable personal attributes than Trump.

She is a more talented politician than she showed in 2019, and it’s shame that her campaign that year was run by people who seemingly thought Elizabeth Warren was a right-winger.

But Harris also blew one big opportunity to tack to the center with her selection of Tim Walz rather than Josh Shapiro: that a tiny minority of progressives objected to Shapiro was an argument in Shapiro’s favor, if anything.

I think Walz was a decent enough pick on his own merits, but given an opportunity to offer a tangible signal of the direction her presidency was headed, she reverted to 2019 mode.

From Rob Crilly, Chief U.S. Political Correspondent

The latest polls have tilted the Daily Mail's election model in Donald Trump's direction giving him a decisive lead over Kamala Harris a day before he goes head to head with his Democratic rival on the debate stage.

The algorithms show he now has a 55 percent chance of becoming president, a 4.5-point boost since last week.

The model works by crunching all the latest polling numbers—national and state—along with decades of historical trends and economic data before feeding the results through the electoral college to work out who is most likely to hit the 270 votes needed to win the election.

Our result comes hard on the heels of a New York Times/Siena College poll giving Trump a one-point lead at the weekend, suggesting Harris's honeymoon is coming to an end.

Feeding that and other recent surveys into the model, developed for us by J.L. Partners, shows that the crucial battleground of Pennsylvania has now moved clearly into the Trump column.

By Katelyn Caralle, Senior U.S. Political Reporter

Donald Trump's campaign said that ABC News has people who will be checking the candidates hands at the debate to make sure they have not written down notes.

Former President Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris are not permitted prepared notes on stage during the debate in Philadelphia on Tuesday.

But Trump thinks that Harris is going to find a way to cheat – saying during a town hall in Harrisburg, Pennsylvania last week:

The other thing is, her best friend is the head of the network. Her husband's best friend is married to the head of the network.

He said that because of this, Harris will somehow get the questions before the debate.

Dana and Matt Walden introduced Harris and First Gentleman Doug Emhoff by setting them up on a blind date. Matt has been friends with Emhoff since the 1980s and Harris has been close with Dana since 1994.

Trump Senior Advisor Jason Miller told reporters on a call Monday:

The questions and topics are not to be given to either campaign – so sorry Dana Walden. It’s going to be standing the entire time, you cannot bring notes.

And, in fact, there will be people from ABC checking during intermission... Checking if candidates have notes written on their hands.

Top national security figures on Monday defended Kamala Harris against Republican attacks that she was to blame for the chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan.

'Vice President Kamala Harris is the best – and only – presidential candidate in this race who is fit to serve as our commander-in-chief,' the retired generals and admirals wrote in their National Security Leaders for America letter.

'She has demonstrated her ability to take on the most difficult national security challenges in the Situation Room and on the international stage.'

It comes after House Republicans published their investigation into the 2021 withdrawal, blaming the disastrous end to the 20-year war on President Joe Biden and his vice president.

It accused them of focusing on politics and optics, rather than preparing proper evacuation plans.

Nancy Pelosi, in an interview with ABC's The View on Monday, subtly changed her story about forcing Joe Biden out of the presidential race and argued that a Democrat must be in charge this January 6th when the 2024 election is certified.

Biden exited the presidential race on July 21st under a pressure campaign from Democrats orchestrated by the former speaker, who was concerned, like many party members, that Biden would lose the White House to Donald Trump and drag House and Senate Democrats down with him.

Pelosi was prepared to go public with her concerns, DailyMail.com revealed last month, if Biden didn't step down voluntarily.

But, in a stunning twist, Pelosi told the hosts of 'The View' that it wasn't about ousting Biden, she really just wanted him to run a better presidential campaign.

'My point was we need a better campaign,' she said. 'So it wasn't about him not running. It's just, if this is the case, we have to run in a different way.'

The Kamala Harris campaign is blasting Donald Trump on the eve of the debate after the former president vowed to go after lawyers and election officials who may engage in ‘unscrupulous behavior’ or who have ‘cheated.’

Harris spokesman Ammar Moussa called Trump ‘unhinged’ and said he was ‘further ratcheting up his dangerous threats of revenge and retribution.’

He accused Trump of going on a ‘self-obsessed revenge tour’

and brought up Trump’s statement to Sean Hannity about being a dictator for ‘one day.’ The message goes along with a Harris message for the debate to try to cast Trump as looking out for himself.

Trump made the threat in a ‘cease and desist’ message he posted online.

By Jon Michael Raasch, U.S. Political Reporter for DailyMail.com

Republican discontents could derail Speaker Mike Johnson's plan to fund the government as he attempts to keep it from shutting down later this month.

Congress needs to pass government funding bills before the end of this month or a shutdown of the critical organs of the federal structure will ensue on October 1.

Johnson unveiled a funding proposal publicly on Friday and Democrats in both chambers are already vehemently against the measure.

They are against Johnson's tricky attachment of a conservative bill - the SAVE Act - to government funding. The SAVE Act would bolster security against illegal immigrants voting in U.S. elections, but Democrats say it's unnecessary.

And as leadership tries to tally how many members they can count on, some are telling Republican Speaker Johnson they are not backing him up.

Vice President Kamala Harris' campaign finally added an 'issues' page to presidential campaign website 50 days after President Joe Biden dropped out of the presidential race and just in time for her debate showdown with Donald Trump.

The 59-year-old Democratic presidential nominee had been unveiling components of her agenda in some policy speeches and campaign announcements, but she had been facing criticism for not giving an in-depth online or giving only one major interview to date where she only briefly talked policy.

The new page titled 'A New Way Forward' includes four sections 'Build an Opportunity Economy and Lower Costs for Families,' 'Safeguard our Fundamental Freedoms,' 'Ensure Safety and Justice for All,' and 'Keep America Safe, Secure, and Prosperous.'

Here's more on what's in it:

House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries has fired back at Republican Speaker Mike Johnson's government funding plan, ridiculing it as 'unserious and unacceptable.'

The New York Democrat is at loggerheads with the deal over a conservative provision that would further restrict illegal immigrants from voting or registering to vote in U.S. federal elections.

'The partisan and extreme continuing resolution put forth by House Republicans is unserious and unacceptable.'

The government could shut down or shutter certain organs if a funding deal is not passed and by Congress and signed into law before October 1.

The Democratic National Committee is launching a massive ad campaign in Philadelphia ahead of the presidential debate on Tuesday between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump.

It includes blanketing the city in the battleground state in billboards and flyers. The messaging zeros in on Trump and the Project 2025 agenda in both English and Spanish.

'Ahead of the debate, Democrats aren’t taking a single voter for granted. We’re meeting voters where they are to make sure they know that a Trump presidency spells disaster for Pennsylvania,' said DNC spokesperson Addy Toevs.

By Emily Goodin, senior White House correspondent

Kamala Harris said she is preparing for Donald Trump to ‘lie’ when they meet on the debate stage on Tuesday.

‘He’s played through this really old and tired playbook,’ she told radio host Rickey Smiley. ‘There's no floor for him in terms of how low he would go and we should be prepared for that. And we should be prepared for the fact that he is not burdened by the truth.’

‘I think he’s gonna lie,’ she added.

Harris taped the radio interview on Wednesday but it aired Monday morning.

She has been in Pittsburgh the past four days preparing for the debate. She heads to Philadelphia on Monday evening.

Tuesday evening's debate will mark the first time Harris and Trump have met in person. It will air at 9 pm ET and is hosted by ABC News.

By Jon Michael Raasch, U.S. Political Reporter for DailyMail.com

Lt. General Sami Sadat, one of Afghanistan's most senior special forces commanders, was in the middle of an offensive against the Taliban when he heard that President Joe Biden had ordered American troops to leave the country.

He described his disbelief to congressional investigators reviewing the disastrous withdrawal in an interview last year.

'It felt like a dagger into my heart, that day he looked like a tyrant, he sounded like a tyrant and he acted as a tyrant,' he said in bombshell testimony released for the first time in the Republican-led Afghanistan withdrawal report.

The House GOP's long-awaited report, published Sunday, revealed a catalogue of missteps leading up to Biden's decision, followed by complacency and mismanagement as American forces and diplomats left amid chaotic scenes.

Sadat, 39, was a commander of the Afghan National Special Operation Corps and Deputy Chief of General Staff of the Afghan National Army, at the time of Taliban takeover.

House Speaker Mike Johnson condemned President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris for 'lying' about the planned 2021 military withdrawal from Afghanistan following the release of a congressional report into the debacle.

The report, which took the House Foreign Affairs Committee years to drum up, was officially released Sunday evening.

'Our House Foreign Affairs Committee Republicans have carefully and methodically investigated the Biden-Harris Administration’s failed withdrawal from Afghanistan that tragically claimed the lives of 13 American servicemembers and weakened America’s standing on the world stage,' Johnson said in a statement. 'The investigation affirmed that the Biden-Harris Administration failed in its duty to protect our soldiers and State Department personnel, and deliberately lied to the American people about their mismanagement and failed strategy.'

'This report paints an incriminating picture of an administration concerned with optics and public perception rather than accountability and the safety of American personnel. Because of this failed withdrawal, the Taliban once again controls Afghanistan, terrorists have been emboldened, billions of dollars of weapons and equipment were left behind, and America has lost the trust of our allies. And not a single administration official was fired over this catastrophe,' he continued.

Johnson is scheduled to deliver Congressional Gold Medals to the families of the 13 lost service members in a ceremony in Washington on Tuesday.

By Katelyn Caralle, Senior U.S. Political Reporter

Golfers at Donald Trump's Bedminster course in New Jersey are greeted by a large piece of art depicting the former president during the assassination attempt.

In the golf clubhouse, visitors and members now see a painting of Trump, pumping his fist and blood smeared from his ear onto his face.

The image depicts the 2024 Republican presidential nominee after shooter Thomas Matthew Crooks grazed his right ear with a bullet from his AR-15 rifle in Butler, Pennsylvania on July 13.

Congress returns to Washington on Monday after a long recess and staring down a three-week deadline to avoid a government shutdown.

Without a budget deal, the government will shut down on September 30th.

Speaker Mike Johnson has proposed a six-month spending bill to get through the election and the inauguration of a new president. But he attached to it a controversial provision that requires proof of citizenship in order to register to vote in federal elections, known as the Save Act.

But Senate Democrats have said no to it, calling the measure unnecessary as it’s already illegal for non-citizens to vote.

And the White House blasted Johnson’s plan for containing ‘devastating across-the-board cuts to education and Head Start programs; our veterans, the military, and border agents; food assistance for mothers, babies, and low-income families; food and air safety; and more.’

Republicans counter that Democrats will look foolish for not supporting the Save Act.

But Johnson also faces questions about the length of his stop-gap spending plan, known as a continuing resolution or CR.

Senate Democrats and some Republicans in both chambers would prefer a shorter time span for the temporary spending bill, extending government funding until the end of December.

With a new Congress will be sworn into office in early January, the December deadline would allow this Congress to wrap up government funding by the end of the year and let the next president and the new class of lawmakers start with a clean slate.

By Katelyn Caralle, Senior U.S. Political Reporter

Donald Trump and Kamala Harris are facing off for their first debate on Tuesday.

There is just one day left for the candidates to prepare for the faceoff where Americans will see Harris and Trump on the same stage for the first time.

The two will meet in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania for a 90-minute event hosted by ABC News.

President Joe Biden pushed ahead with his plan to withdraw U.S. troops from Afghanistan despite multiple warnings of devastating consequences, according to a damning congressional investigation published Sunday, which reveals a catalog of missteps and missed opportunities.

It reveals how Washington's most senior official in Kabul went on vacation even as the Taliban was closing in on the capital city.

And it accuses Biden, Vice President Kamala Harris and their officials of prioritizing politics and optics over operational needs, such as planning for an emergency evacuation of civilians.

The resulting chaos, with tens of thousands of foreign nationals and Afghans crowding into Kabul's airport after the Taliban seized the city in August 2021, triggered the first crisis of the Biden administration.

And it descended into tragedy when a suicide bomber killed 13 American service personnel and about 170 Afghans.

After 20 months, seven public hearings and 18 more witnesses, Republicans on the House Foreign Affairs Committee on Monday published their long-awaited report into the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan.

It lays out what they allege are the missteps that led to President Joe Biden decision to announce in April 2021 that he was ending America's 20-year war.

The report also accuses three spokesmen and women of the Biden administration of withholding information from the American public by glossing over American failures and ignoring how the Taliban acted in bad faith, as well as talking up the abilities of Afghan fighting forces before finally blaming them for the collapse of the Kabul government.

It centers its criticism on: Ned Price, spokesperson for the State Department; Rear Admiral John Kirby, spokesperson for the Department of Defense; and White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki, spokesperson for the president.

These are the ways they tried to spin a failing mission, according to the report.

The late, great Democratic debate coach Christine Jahnke had one piece of advice for female candidates trying to break through during a debate: interrupt a man.

That may not be an option for Kamala Harris on Tuesday for the biggest test of her career.

Harris, after much negotiation, agreed to a debate plan that would allow for microphones to be muted when the other candidate is talking.

And her campaign is worried that will put her at a disadvantage when she debates Donald Trump in her do-or-die primetime showdown on ABC.

One of their goals for the debate is to create a viral moment similar to what Harris experienced during her questioning of Brett Kavanaugh in his Supreme Court confirmation hearing and during her vice presidential debate with Mike Pence, when she famously told him: 'I'm speaking.'

Those moments played over and over again on social media, casting her in a good light. Her advisers expect many Americans will see the debate through those types of social media moments.

By Katelyn Caralle, Senior U.S. Political Reporter

Donald Trump finds himself at odds with Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis on the legalization of marijuana in the Sunshine State.

Trump wrote in a Truth Social post over the weekend that he would vote 'YES' in November on the Florida ballot measure known as Amendment 3.

He said in the post i was time 'to end needless arrests and incarcerations of adults for small amounts of marijuana for personal use.'

The former president lives in the state DeSantis governors after he changed his residency to there after becoming disenfranchized by his life in liberal enclave of New York City.

Trump has said he doesn't agree with the strict regulations on marijuana use and says if he wins another term, his administration will 'focus on research to unlock the medical uses of marijuana.'

DeSantis and other GOP leaders in Florida are against the Amendment 3 and in April the governor said it 'does not just decriminalize marijuana. It’s a license to have it wherever you want.'

Vice President Kamala Harris and Gov. Tim Walz's campaign is releasing a debate day ad of Donald Trump's former Cabinet members turning against the former president.

The ad points to comments made by Trump's Vice President Mike Pence, Defense Secretary Mark Esper, National Security Advisor John Bolton and Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Mark Milley.

All have spoken out against their former boss.

The TV ad spot comes as Harris and Trump prepare for their first faceoff with a debate in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania on Tuesday.

By Katelyn Caralle, Senior U.S. Political Reporter

Liberals are in a complete meltdown after the first major poll since the Democratic National Convention last month put Donald Trump ahead of Kamala Harris.

The tiny 1-point lead falls within the New York Times/Siena College polls’ margin of error, but the former president squeaking ahead with just two months until Election Day has Democrats up in arms.

Some pollsters said it suggests that Harris’ ‘honeymoon’ phase is ending after just over a month in the race. But some claim it could be a ‘blip’ while other members of the Party are dismissing one of the most reputable and respected major polling authorities.

One self-proclaimed ‘recovering political pollster’ and ‘election nerd’ wrote on X:

We’ll wait for more data to see if this is a blip or the start of a reversion, but NYT/Siena is an excellent pollster.

Another user called the NYT/Siena survey 'broken, garbage polling.'

Of 1,695 registered voters surveyed September 3-6, 48 percent say they would vote for Trump compared to 47 percent for Vice President Harris.

A previous poll done by NYT/Siena found Harris ahead by 3 percent.

A liberal pollster's latest projection shows Donald Trump securing a blowout victory over Kamala Harris.

Nate Silver's prediction places the Republican hopeful's chances of winning the electoral college vote at 63.8 percent, compared to 36 percent for Harris.

Silver's modelling, published on his blog Silver Bulletin, also places Trump ahead in all of the crucial swing states.

He predicts 312 electoral college votes for Trump versus 226 for Harris in a no toss-up map.

The figure is a massive upswing on the 227 Trump secured against Biden in 2020 and even an improvement on his victory over Hillary Clinton in 2016 when he romped to the White House with 304 electoral college votes.